As Goes California, So Goes Texas?

One long standing discussion on the Dissident Right, which is slowly but surely being picked up on by the mainstream Right, is the so-called “bluing” of Texas. This is the idea that Texas, today thought of as a deep red state, will in the very near future become a blue state, which will render any hope of a Republican presidential victory impossible. And, let me say that this is a real possibility. The fears the Right has are not without merit. But at the same time, I do not feel the situation is as dire and hopeless as it has been made out to be. I will explain my reasoning here.

There is a model for the bluing of Texas- what happened in California. As the story goes, California was once a red state and voting Republican in all but one presidential election between 1952 and 1988. It was the home of Nixon and Reagan. It was the home of Orange County. It was the very center of right-wing populism from the 1950s until the 1990s. It was a middle-class paradise. But today, thanks largely to immigration, that California is only a memory. The GOP has been reduced to a rump party. There is no way to stop any sort of left-wing lunacy on either social or economic issues. Inland and suburban Southern California, once rock-ribbed conservative, have turned purple and, in some cases, straight blue, a change that took place in a single generation.

So, does this mean that Texas is on the same trajectory? Well, not necessarily, because I do see several differences between the states that favors Texas. For one, California was not as Republican as it has been made out to be. Yes, in all, but one election, between 1952 and 1988 California was a Republican state. But, this was the era of national Republican landslides. The GOP, nationally, won seven of those races and by huge margins, including two major thrashings.  Yes, it is true that twice California backed a losing Republican, but again, context is key. In both the 1960 and 1976 elections, California itself was very close, a slight shift in votes in either race would have turned California into a bellwether state, instead of a red state. And, keep in mind in both 1960 and 1976, the Democrats ran candidates that were poor fits for California. John Kennedy was well away from the urban Catholic machine that made his presidency, while Carter was seen as weak on water issues- a major factor in the Western United States. His evangelicalism turned off many of these voters also. Yet, both men were able to keep California close and Kennedy was going up against a native Californian to boot. In 1988, California was close again, even in the middle of what was a national Republican landslide. Indeed, in many of the elections between 1952 and 1988, California was less Republican than the national average, including both of major landslides.

Contrast this to Texas: from 1980 to today, Texas has gone Republican every single election and every time has been more Republican than the national average, including 1984. The last time the Democrats won Texas was in 1976 and that was largely because the Democrats did nominate a Georgian, causing many Dixians in Texas and throughout Dixie to see this as their last chance to take back their ancestral party from the liberals. After that plan failed, Texas has gone red and has never really looked back, even as the GOP’s fortunes have changed since the days of California being a Republican state. Since 1988, the GOP has won the popular vote once- in 2004 during a time of war, but yet Texas has remained red. The last time Texas was less Republican than the national average was 1976.

An analysis of the state level reveals a similar picture. Even during the “golden age” of California conservatism, the state elected Pat Brown and Jerry Brown- the latter being elected twice. The last time the state was served by two Republicans in the Senate was 1968. Contrast this to Texas, the last time a Democrat won a state-wide race in Texas was in 1990, and that was only because “Claytie” Williams imploded. So yes, even during the heyday of the GOP in California, the state was a swing state with a red tilt. Texas is more of a pure red state.

Then there is the issue of migration into California. Beginning in the 1960s, California became a “bifocal” state in that both liberals and conservatives flocked there, with some self-sorting going on. The liberals went to the San Francisco Bay area and, if they wanted to be in the film business, Los Angeles. Meanwhile, conservatives flocked to the suburbs of Southern California. But, after the Cold War ended, the defense industry shrank, an industry that had been a major factor in bringing conservatives to California. That left only the liberals coming. Texas, by contrast, still gets plenty of conservatives, and liberals aren’t flocking there like they were to California. I remember in high school the liberals wanted to either go to the Northeast or California. My conservative friends wanted to stay in Alabama or maybe go to Texas.

Yes, Latin American and liberal immigration has changed California, but it is not the only thing that has turned the state into what it is today. Keep in mind in 1994 when Californians went to the polls in support of Prop 187, which bared non-emergency services for illegal immigration, and it passed overwhelmingly. So, what radically changed in 25 years? I am sure some people changed their minds and moved to the Left. And, some of those people have indeed died. But, one of the biggest factors in what has turned California into what it is today is that many of those voters have gotten fed up with the state and moved elsewhere. There is a reason Idaho is known as “blue heaven”- because of the sheer amount of LAPD that have moved there. And, this is where I think Texas is much more unique than California. I’ve been to Texas. I have kin in Texas. I love Texas and I do not think Texans will abandon Texas like what was done in California. I have every reason to believe that they will stay and fight and because of that, Texas will not go the way of California.

None of this is to suggest we bury our heads in the sand, declare “it can’t happen here,” and go about our day. Texas, as with the rest of the nation, faces an uncertain future. But, what I do not believe is that the situation is hopeless. Texas can still flourish and her bluing is far from inevitable, as long as Texans are willing to fight.

I believe they won’t let it happen.

-Harmonica