It Ain’t According To Reason

Just because people share history, geography, genetics and possess linguistic similarities doesn’t mean they don’t prefer each other dead. I spent the weekend with some friends from an Eastern European country adjacent to the current action. Slavs are excellent to bring along for a getaway if the underlying premise is going on a bender. These are urban-cosmopolitans involved in international business, not the “based” version.

I procured several pallets of their native beer for the bacchanal. They were surprised it was exported and informed me it was their equivalent of Natty Light and the preferred beverage of the homeless. This proved no impediment, and as the evening wore on the discussion inevitably turned to Ukraine. Here’s a brief summary of their take on the situation:

• Russians aren’t human
• Anyone who supports Russia is an animal
• Russians should die along with their animals
• Ukraine is winning
• Ukraine has more tanks than when the war started by capturing the Russians’
• The Russian economy is doomed, ha ha
• Russia will collapse, ha ha
• Hopefully, Putin will be afflicted with a crippling illness and die in slow agony
• He probably went insane already
• This conflict wasn’t instigated by the USA
• There are no problematic Nazi militants in Ukraine
• Our country isn’t in danger of an escalation, they’ve been making this BS threat for decades

A common sentiment I hear consistently from Eastern Europeans is that the Russians are capable of the most nefarious plots but also comically incompetent. If an example of Russia successfully executing a chess move or pulling off a military operation is brought up, one can observe the incredulity contort their faces.

The other is how emotional NATO and EU membership is to them. They see it as validation that their country is no longer a vassal of Russia and a second class, post-Soviet state. This seems to be the sentiment across the political spectrum. Getting money from the EU is great, too.

So, it’s completely understandable that Ukrainians would want both memberships, especially since it’s remained mired in poverty and severe corruption, while next door Hungary and Poland have made huge, subsidized leaps since joining. The fact that Russia is a very powerful country which must have certain demands met in order to keep the peace isn’t going to cut it with them.

My point here is that there’s a tendency to overlook the depth of local antipathies and aspirations when trying to reach conclusions about what’s happening in some other corner of the planet. The current crisis is the result of deliberately making blunders that triggered a predictable reaction. We have a tendency to interpret it from this rational perspective because these people have an emotional disposition based on very bad things we haven’t experienced (yet) in America.