Failure of Imagination

On his September 13th podcast, Scott Greer made a dozen or so points for why there will be no imminent Civil War II. It is as good a summary as any for those who are encouraging the strategy that status quo politics and solutions are the only way forward and any thought of physical revolt needs to be shut down.

In brief, here is his argument:

1. There is too much prosperity. The population just isn’t that concerned or even really perceives their liberty and freedoms are under dire threat: the bread and circuses are keeping the population just distracted enough. As noted for decades, even our poor are better off than most of the world. For most who identify as “conservative,” it’s fun to complain, but there is ESPN, hobbies, a nice enough house, and the commercialized life can still be lived and enjoyed in blissful ignorance.
2. There is no Army-in-waiting or even state militias that would make a clean break possible like there was during the first Civil War. Today’s military leadership is loyal to the Federal Government.
3. All Red States are dependent on Federal funding for services to survive, from schools, to roads, to welfare checks.
4. There is no history of real tension between states, let alone regions or the Federal Government. Prior to the Civil War, there were decades of actual conflict that included pitched battles and violence (Bleeding Kansas and John Brown, for example). Several states, like South Carolina, had been threatening to secede since at least the Mexican-American War (1846-48).
5. There is no strong regional identity or dominant alternative identity to rally around, but instead an increasingly bland media-driven American culture. What would the sides be?
6. Multinational corporations are holding not only the Southern states but all states hostage economically: “Wal-Mart won’t let them break away.”
7. In any state, 40% or more of the population, albeit mostly in urban areas, would not be onboard with conflict and are instead loyal to the Federal Government.
8. There is no leadership class on the Right. The leadership elite in the South and other Red States are not statesmen. Asa, Hutchinson, Brian Kemp, Ron DeSantis, and Donald Trump are not going to lead a rebellion.
9. The examples of the Russian and Spanish civil wars are not comparable. They happened because there really was a total collapse. Today, there would have to be a major collapse of infrastructure, including tech and the economy to create a similar state of total chaos that left the Russians and Spanish no option but to choose a side.
10. There are no rightwing institutions to challenge the Federal Government. In the Spanish Civil War, the military rebelled to fight the government and the Nationalists were able to involve the rightwing institutions, like the Church. Today, the Right doesn’t even really include the GOP and most churches would not endorse rebellion. Perhaps police unions and some retired military, but major institutions do not exist.
11. There are no coherent ideologies on the Right to align on. What exactly is the traditional “American Way”? Gun rights, abortion, and being anti-vax are not enough to unite in resistance to the Federal Government. What would a new nation even look like?
12. The Dissident Right would not be the leaders even if a fight broke out, but would most likely even be targeted by “our side.” Imagine an armed CPAC and the Heritage Foundation being the leading voices of the rebellion?

While one could quibble on these points, they are largely accurate.

But, to borrow a phrase from the State when it is supposedly surprised by an event they didn’t see coming, there may be a real “failure of imagination” here.

Well-organized civil rebellion as Greer outlines and measured against precedents like the American Civil War, the Bolshevik Revolution, or Franco’s Nationalists, are not the scenarios that most concern the State.

If those are the examples that define the standard for “civil war,” then no, it will not happen.

But, setting aside any rogue agency/State concocted shenanigans or the success of one of the secessionist movements that are increasingly popular across the political spectrum (Texit, Second Vermont Republic, Greater Idaho…), there are two plausible scenarios that could lead to real point-of-no-return damage and by any other name would be civil war.

Two Tipping Points

The first is the small but real chance of an economic collapse. Not a slow down or hardship, but things simply stop working and both money and goods stop flowing.

Currency manipulations, cyber attack, unintended consequences from psychotic policies and uncontrollable dominoes falling, food shortages, supply chains finally snap or a dozen other things that could lead to economic and social collapse are nowhere near as far-fetched as you might think. So much so that mainstream wonks around the world openly talk about it.

With 59 million people in the USA on welfare (20% of the total country, 50% of blacks, 36% of Hispanics) and well over 20 million illegals in our midst, nearly a third of the country is dependent on the government to survive the week.

If the scenario ever ends up happening, our priorities, along with the creatures in charge, will have little to do with seizing power but will focus on simply surviving.

Based on observable behavior, it is a second scenario, however, that concerns our keepers the most.

In spite of the rhetoric, it isn’t dissident groups or White Supremacists (oh my!) that really worries governments. They have been successfully infiltrating and entrapping troubled minds and the easily duped for decades. No, it is and always has been, the normal conservative and traditional-minded citizen, with his nominal Christianity and vestigial patriotism that is the problem.

Tens of millions of Boomers, Gen Xers, and the 20 million of the Silent Generation still kicking around, sincerely love the idea of their country. These generations are the ones who disproportionately fought in America’s wars. Though 70% of active duty military are Millennials, only a few of the oldest of them (born 1985) would have been old enough to fight in the first years right after 9/11 when the sentiment that Iraq and Afghanistan were just causes. Very few deployed after that stayed true believers, once they got there.

Unlike Millennials, the older generations aren’t cynically eye-rolling or posing when they cite things like, “The tree of liberty must be refreshed from time to time with the blood of patriots and tyrants.” This is Holy Writ and a call to righteous duty.

Scott Greer’s generation, and those younger, simply can’t relate to the sentiments and emotions of older generations nor are they powered by the same moral obligation to be outraged. Yes, they fall every time for “conservative” gatekeepers and the GOP bravado that harnesses and converts their energy into impotence. Yes, they are too comfortable, too entertained, not well-organized, support an incoherent contradictory political system, are generally not civically committed, and attend, if at all, milquetoast churches. Every one of these being the crafted result of a culture that was retooled so that every point of contact in someone’s life could be channeled in directions to protect the State’s interests.

And yet, these generations still believe in the bigger-than-life myth of the “American Way” and that law and order, truth and justice will be restored and that they are the ones that will answer the call to make it happen. Ten-thousand plus of them showed up on January 6th and easily ten times that at Trump rallies. These are the same furious parents now challenging school boards over masks and CRT. (To date, I have not seen anyone that even whiffs of being an actual dissident mildly inconveniencing themselves to do this.)

The personal identity of this giant middle part of the curve is inseparably tied to their belief that the solution is to simply restore a constitutional republic and shrink the federal government.

It is a naïve and gross underestimation of their anger, willingness, ability, and righteous peace of mind these people have toward the idea of killing their oppressing tyrants. The only thing missing to activate these people en masse into the streets at the very least, and literally targeting any agent of the State at the extreme, is simply being told to do so or a precedent setting event.

With weekly pronouncements that enrage more and more normal people with very real threats to their day-to-day life and future ability to work and freely travel, coupled with the perversities and bizarrities that are clearly intentional transgressions to provoke and demoralize, it’s not going to be some wild-eyed good ‘ol boy who might kick things off, but more likely a few guys who dose on chondroitin and decaf in the morning and wear $100 oxford button downs and wool slacks.

The Last Thing We Want

An unfocused mass revolt of the middle is exactly what we want to prevent. It would be a disaster and solidify State power, giving them cause to drop any remaining restraint and pretense of moderation and pursue extreme and overt persecution. A legitimate counter to the international regime is not waiting in the wings; and even if a “win” for a revolt was allowed, it would be a benignly modified reboot of the same system.

Is this what the State wants? It makes more sense to think the regime’s accelerating overreach and nonsensical harassment of the part of the population they actually fear is not a masterminded trap (we give them far too much credit) but rather an arrogant, spastic, and punitive reaction by a State that received a frightening wake-up call with the 2016 election: 70 years of programming and distractions didn’t take.

It doesn’t mean that the tinderbox scenarios aren’t real or the global elites’ quickening scramble to fortify and dominate isn’t real. It means there is no one in control of the dynamics right now, including “their” ability to control a revolt of the masses.

Dissidents must do better to reach the giant middle of the curve, our good-hearted, well-intentioned normie cousins, and direct their efforts and money toward those difficult things that make real change possible (building parallel systems that account for economic and basic needs, using the tools and politics at hand to slow or even defeat the State like interposition and nullification, for example).

At all costs, we need to make sure they don’t light the match.