The same people who’ve delivered us every foreign policy disaster since the end of the Cold War don’t have new tricks up their sleeves or any regard to how doing the same trick over and over might backfire. Here’s a tweet by Matthew Yglesias, a hack featured in prominent publications through tribal nepotism, although he’d like you to infer he’s just another Latino:
These people aren’t where they’re at because of meritocracy and their policies make sense for America. Today, let’s talk about regime change. The first thing to bear in mind is that compliance with U.S. demands won’t spare you from this fate. Muammar Qaddafi could explain that one but, unfortunately, he was sodomized to death with a bayonet. Upholding our values like religious tolerance won’t either, as Bashar Al-Assad could elaborate. Doing what’s perfectly acceptable under international law, like taking the highest bid on a particular commodity, could be your final deal. Evo Morales found out the hard way.
To address his point about client states, this relationship actually won’t guarantee much. For starters, it didn’t save Hosni Mubarak of Egypt which outraged the Saudis. Likewise with Mikheil Saakashvili in Georgia back in 2008, although he was more of an aspiring client. Afghanistan speaks volumes, obviously.
It’s amazing that the government in Kiev had so much confidence in U.S. support that it shelled the residents of Luhansk and Donetsk while moving a large army into place for an operation against them. Putin warned them but they did it anyway, thinking they had the big guy in their corner. It must’ve been a big shock when they were left to get “de-nazified” (that’s Russian for “executed”).
This brings us to Saudi Arabia. There’s an interesting book on how the crown prince (Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, “MBS”) consolidated an iron grip: Blood and Oil: Mohammed bin Salman’s Ruthless Quest for Global Power. Basically, he understood that his bloated family wasn’t running the place sustainably and set about reforming them financially and correcting their attitude problems. He wasn’t gentle about it either, which is pretty entertaining.
He’s been vexed by the fact that the U.S. would prefer the traditional arrangement of Saudi dollar loyalty and massive spending on U.S. weapons. Instead, he wants American investments in his grandiose projects to turn the kingdom into something more than an oil exporter. He’s also pissed about tepid Washington enthusiasm for his campaign in Yemen, which was ill-advised, bungled, and appalling in a humanitarian sense.
China wisely provided the understanding and investments he’d been seeking. That’s the sort of approach one appreciates when you’ve got literally hundreds of other princes from whom a more compliant replacement could be selected. He catapulted himself to power through his senile father, the U.S. preferred an uncle.
Likewise, the Russians have also cultivated a good relationship. Saudi Arabia needs the most money per barrel to fund its government spending, while Russia requires somewhere around the least. That sort of leverage makes it an important friend to retain.
Again, if you’re the client of a nation that wouldn’t mind replacing you with a relative and tossing your ambitions in the trash where would you be gravitating to at this point? Credibility is essential to this decision. Chinese carrots aside, the Russians are the gold standard.
They honor their international agreements, and they stand by their clients. Bashar Al-Assad is an example that’s got to weigh on MBS. The Saudis had backed his overthrow, which was thwarted in a bold intervention by Putin. He recently did it again with paratroopers in Kazakhstan.
Right now, MBS is watching Russia push NATO to the brink of WW3 protecting its clients, the DPR and LPR. The only one they ever let down was Viktor Yanukovych in the 2014 Maidan. It caught them off guard, but that’s currently being rectified.
So, my point is that if you’re in as tenuous a situation as MBS and you know that the people in Washington are reckless, arrogant and thinking just like Yglesias, wouldn’t you start selling in yuan?
I’m proud to officially announce my candidacy for the office of Dogcatcher.
In the mean time, Uncle Sam spends $800 million more of money stolen from us to send Suicide Drones to Ukraine. Boy, those war profiteers are partying down more and more every night. I sure wish General Lee hadn’t surrendered so soon. I’d fight the Eliot Cohens of the world to my last breath.
Yglesias has his job not because he’s the House Hispanic. Yglesias keeps his job because he’s a Jew. Few things worse than a dumb kike.