Putin’s Fourth Compromise?

I recently wrote a couple of articles outlining the economic and military constraints on Trump’s ability to impose an end the current fighting in Ukraine that suits the DC swamp all around him. If one discounts the nonsense in the Western media that Russia is in desperate straits and will be forced to come to terms, four scenarios become probable:

1. Ukraine collapses. Russia advances west and south to secure its objectives in the chaos.
2. Ukraine ignores its Western handlers and unilaterally secures the best terms it can from Russia.
3. Trump manages to strike a deal that suits the West to the detriment of Russia.
4. Trump is able to blame the first or second possible outcomes on Europe and the Ukrainians. He then moves on with his other agendas.

What’s ignored in the current Western discourse is that three peace agreements were already signed. Two in the wake of the 2014 coup in Kiev that touched off the civil war in Ukraine, and one immediately following Russia’s intervention in early 2022.

The first agreement, Minsk I, was signed to avert direct conflict in 2014, and the next, Minsk II, was reached on further details the following year. The gist of the two most important points was that Ukraine wouldn’t be militarized by foreign powers against Russia and that the breakaway Russian entities in Donbass would remain part of Ukraine but with autonomy similar to the arrangement with the Russian Federation. Germany and France acted as brokers.

This was the reasonable compromise to end the bloodshed stemming from the coup and to avert the mass slaughter we’ve been witnessing for nearly three years since Putin ordered the SMO to resolve the situation by force. Prior to the SMO, Putin had insisted on these agreements to the Russian separatists and refused to allow them to declare independence. Even as the missiles began flying in the opening hours, the implementation of the Minsk agreements was still his demand.

This was a preferrable alternative to the destruction of Ukraine and the liquidation of its male population which has brought the world closer to open conflict since perhaps at any point since World War 2. Moreover, Putin obviously doesn’t want an escalation, but he had to understand this would be a possibility once he pulled the trigger. Mainstream Western commentators should appreciate the danger implicit in his acceptance of the risk, but of course we hear nothing of this gravity.

In late 2022, Angela Merkel admitted that the whole process had been a ruse to trick Russia into allowing more time for Ukraine to prepare for war. While it was a disingenuous game all along, if implemented these agreements would’ve been a workable compromise to avert direct conflict and the abolition of the Ukrainian state. Putin had also invested a great deal of domestic political capital in insisting on a compromise instead of avenging Russian blood in Donbass, which his political base wanted. There’s zero evidence of bad faith on his part.

Still, he probably understood the ploy since the Russians spent the interim preparing for war and sanctions themselves. However, the fact that an international agreement of such significance was admitted being concluded in treachery by the leader of Germany was deeply shocking outside the Western world. The average American can’t appreciate what an enormous PR victory this was for Putin. 82% of the world’s population lives in countries with no quarrel against Russia where this backstabbing actually matters to perceptions.

The third peace agreement was concluded almost immediately after the SMO got underway. In this opening phase of the intervention, a Russian grouping of around 40,000 troops was parked outside of Kiev to put political pressure on the Ukrainian government to come to terms. This is promptly what happened, since Ukraine had no chance of winning if Putin decided to intervene directly.

The document was signed by the Ukrainians and Putin has shown off his copy whenever foreign delegations come to Moscow pushing for negotiations. Once it was signed, the Russian grouping dispersed. It never surrounded the city and its purpose was never to take it. This would’ve required the crippling of the Ukrainian military as a prerequisite and a general mobilization in Russia for enough soldiers to invest and storm Kiev, a metropolis of three million.

Behind the scenes, Ukraine was forced by the West to renege on the agreement. The Western media then claimed that Russia’s withdrawal from Kiev’s outskirts was a major victory for Ukraine, which had broken the “siege” and proven that it could beat the Russians. It was preposterous claim, yet the fighting has been raging ever since. What sort of agreement is Putin willing to make the fourth time around? This is the question that will drive its denouement.

The Ukrainian state has demonstrated that it is such a fundamentally untrustworthy entity that it won’t even keep a promise it made while a gun was to its head and stood no chance of victory by its own acknowledgment. Russia has announced that Zelensky is no longer a relevant party to any settlement, so it’s not even clear which Ukrainians would be considered legitimate signatories.

What Ukraine’s Western masters want is totally obvious. First, that Russia shouldn’t make any further advances and agree to freeze the conflict on its current lines. Second, to claim this as a victory for saving Ukraine. Third, to be able to revive this conflict to finish off Russia when the opportunity presents itself later. Also, to perhaps utilize Ukraine as a staging area for endless drone terrorism against Russia in the meantime.

As the drama unfolds in the United States and the Middle East, the greatest scale of combat is still happening in Eastern Europe. The Ukrainian drone campaign against targets all over the Russian Federation has increased dramatically while the collapse of its front lines is accelerating. A dramatic inflection point is imminent. Minsk was the middle ground for Russia and Ukraine, but there doesn’t appear to be any available for Russia and the West.