In terms of a contestable conflict, it’s been over in the Ukraine since Putin decided to intervene directly back in 2022. NATO never had the military capability to defeat the Russians in a direct confrontation. Meanwhile, the Russians had overwhelming advantages over the Ukrainians in firepower, personnel, equipment, technology, military-industrial complexes, and strategic depth from which to conduct long range strikes anywhere in Ukraine.
NATO’s ability to supply Ukraine was always limited by what capacity was left to drain from stockpiles as the ability of production to keep pace with Ukrainian consumption was either woefully inadequate or nonexistent, as in the case of equipment such as Western tanks, which had been produced through boutique processes long before it began. The Ukrainians can be supplied indefinitely with small FPV drones, but that’s about it.
Ukraine is the size of Texas and fortified for World War 3 by the Soviets. It was where Moscow would be defended. It’s taken Russia over two years to annihilate one of the largest armies in the world, backed by NATO, along a line of contact that would stretch from DC to the middle of Florida. The question was only time.
Accordingly, the Ukrainians agreed to a settlement with the Russians at the outset of the conflict, which could’ve spared all the lives lost since then but they were ordered to renege. Putin shows off his signed copy of the agreement. What’s telling is that the Ukrainians clearly aren’t allowed to negotiate even as what’s left of their military is being pounded with hundreds of metric tons of glide bombs every day.
So, from the Ukrainian side of things they’ll just keep going until the situation collapses rather than announcing to the world they want it to end and would be willing to make the necessary concessions to halt Russian combat operations. In other words, it’s up to Russia to induce a collapse which produces the most favorable outcomes for itself. We can observe some developments that might offer predictive value in this regard.
First, Ukraine didn’t hold scheduled presidential elections last month. A strong case can be made that Zelensky is no longer the legitimate president. Thus, he’s now on Russia’s criminal wanted list. This signals that he’s officially no longer a leader who can represent Ukraine along with anyone in his government. It’s also a way of letting Zelensky know he wouldn’t be allowed to head off into exile if he sticks around for the inevitable collapse. Best to flee at the first sign of trouble.
So, perhaps it has become a matter of how Putin knocks over the dominoes now that they’re set up. This could be why a large Russian operation is underway in the northeast of Ukraine threatening both Kharkov and Kiev. The Russians don’t need to storm and subdue either city, especially since this would involve destroying them. There was an imperative to conduct such an operation in Mariupol during Phase One in order to secure a land bridge between Crimea and the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. Not this time around.
All that’s needed now is to induce a panic, so the defenders abandon their posts and flee westward rather than sticking around for the slaughter. That could be accomplished by moving forces outside the municipal limits and bringing it under artillery range, for example. Either city could serve as a catalyst for regime collapse.
Apparently, there are so many surrenders and desertions in the face of the current operation that units have been deployed to the rear to intercept troops trying to leave. The hopelessness is already rife, and it’s justifiable. It’s a very sad situation for the Ukrainians.
The abandonment of one by the military and government would prompt the same in the other since it would be the next objective on the list. Therefore, whether or not the Russians move on Kiev, the national government would probably flee the capital. How then does the fiction remain that Ukraine has a chance to hold off the Russians? Will the conscripts fight on as it sets up shop again in Lvov? Would the people even support this? Nations often hold up while losing a war until the moment they don’t, and then the disintegration happens overnight.
Note that the Russians have used this tactic earlier in the conflict. The Russian Army parked a column of around 40,000 outside of Kiev in order to put political pressure on the government and tie down the Ukrainian units assigned to the city’s defense in order to prevent them from attempting to relieve Mariupol. The operation was a success in this regard, and also brought the Ukrainians to the negotiating table to sign the agreement discussed earlier in the article.
After the agreement was ripped up and Phase One ended, the column dispersed. In the West, this is hailed as the defeat of a siege. For the Russians, the efficacy of this tactic was proven against the Ukrainians. The Russians know that the Ukrainians aren’t willing or able to hold Kiev indefinitely. This is why these visits by foreign leaders and various stooges are allowed. The major visits are personally approved by Putin, and not because he’s scared. It just adds to the humiliation when the Saigon moment arrives, just like it did in Kabul.
What if President Ford had made a visit to Saigon praising the South Vietnamese and proclaiming that the city would never fall? Putin is allowing this to score a propaganda win against the West on the global stage and make a point about NATO’s impotence in imposing its will following the Global War on Terror and his resurrection of Russian power.
Like everything else that happens on the world stage, the average American will just forget about all the grandstanding and fraudulent predictions made in Kiev, and all of the Western experts will just move on as if it never happened. However, this isn’t who Putin needs to show that the Rules-Based International Order is a sick joke. He needs to rally the alternative system being instituted in partnership with China.
There’s a decent chance we watch the situation in Ukraine fall apart in the near future. It would be the best thing for Ukrainians:
I’m proud to officially announce my candidacy for the office of Dogcatcher.
The Slow Motion Operation continues to (mission?) creep along. We all know that Russia could have brought things to a speedy conclusion by crashing Ukraine’s power grid and taking out the bridges over the Dneipr River. Why haven’t they? But should they?
Obviously, complex and changing algorithims must be troubling Putin’s sleep.
A multi focal approach would see him wanting to bankrupt and humiliate NATO – and especially Jewry’s great Golem, the US – while creating a possible scenario where Ukrainians, and maybe some NATO states, would welcome the Russians as liberators from their corrupt regimes. A la’ ancient Rome and the Visigoths.
And let’s not forget how his boys are getting a fortune in combat experience in Ukraine.
Also, it’s not unlikely that Putin’s using the war as a distraction, while he pulls off a sleight of hand beneath the table.
The thought of getting stuck fighting a US funded Ukrainian guerrilla war after Russia is victorious on the battlefield must occupy his mind too. Frankly, I wouldn’t want his job.
Anyway lot is going on over there we’re not privy to. Probably just as well seeing the problems staring down at us over here.