How The Empire Dies, Part 9: The Americas

Author’s Note: This is the nineth part in a multipart series examining the decline of the American Empire and what it means for the world on a regional basis. This article will focus on the Americas.

The future of United States power in the Americas is fascinating in many ways. On the surface, it looks as if the U.S. will be able to maintain its hegemony over the region. The Americas were the first region the Empire gained control over, it is thus the core of the Empire’s sphere of influence, and one that the United States will be least willing to give up. Plus, there is no other viable hegemon that could take over. The vast majority of the governments in the region are poor and kleptocratic. Canada is the exception here, but it is far from being a military power. And, then there are the geographic considerations. The United States is the only nation in the Americas that is really big and wealthy enough to be a hegemon, and the Atlantic and Pacific oceans form enough of a natural barrier that it will make it difficult for a country from the Eastern Hemisphere to establish a sphere of influence. Of course, the Atlantic and Pacific do not form the kind of protection it once did, we now live in a world of aircraft and the internet, both of which would have been unthinkable in 1850. But, these new technologies can only go so far.  

Land and water still matter a great deal. The U.S. thought that new technology, namely drones, would allow it to rule Afghanistan, something neither the Brits nor the Russians could do. The American Empire failed miserably because there really are limitations to the extent new technology changed warfare. Vast bodies of water still make it difficult to establish influence and power. The U.S. did this to be sure, but part of this is due to luck. After World War II, every other major industrial economy was utterly destroyed, and the United States was able to move in. In normal conditions, it is doubtful the United States could have accomplished this.

And, I do think that even as American power around the globe goes into deep decline, the Americas will be the last region to experience this downturn. There are simply too many difficulties inherent in the region for another nation to take over as a hegemon. Other potential hegemons in the region, such as Brazil or Mexico, are too poor and unstable, while Canada has no will to be a power-player (that nation is in its own decline). The already mentioned geographical barriers will make it difficult for an Eastern Hemisphere power to do so. China stands the best chance, and I think they will try and capture some key areas, the most important one being the Panama Canal, but I do not think it will be as complete as the United States hegemony over the region. It is too far and there are other places more important to China’s goals.

On the surface this appears to be a reversion to the situation before World War II, and especially before the Spanish-American War, with the United States having a great deal of influence over the Americas but very little over the rest of the world. Let me say that this will not be the situation that eventually develops. Historically, nations do not handle the transition between being a continent-spanning empire to being a mere regional player well. Normally, they do not go back to the status quo, but rather go into steep decline. Look at how badly the United Kingdom and France have declined in the post-World War II era, and they had the U.S. propping them up, something that no doubt aided in slowing down the decline. The American Empire has no such partner.

And now we come to the big one, one that the readership of Identity Dixie knows well – the United States is not one nation, it is many nations, and these nations are realizing that they really do not have anything in common with one another. Dixie is its own country. Yankeedom is its own country. The Pacific Northwest is its own country and the fact that all three of these nations are under the same national government makes zero sense. Imagine taking a space alien to New Orleans, Boston, and Seattle and having him pick which of these three cities are in the same country?

This is where the greatest threat to U.S. hegemony over the Americas comes from. Not from Mexico or Brazil, and not even China (though they will certainly try). Rather, it comes from the nations that make up the United States finally realizing that perpetual union makes no sense and is not in their best interest. We are already witnessing the normalization of secession. Polling is no longer consistently revealing that secession is a fringe idea. That same polling is indicating that around two-thirds of Republican voters in Dixie, a good proxy for native Dixians, support secession. The U.S. was able to launch imperial projects to keep these nations distracted from how different they are. The first one, spanning from the Founding to the Mexican-American War, focused on a mad dash to the Pacific. It is not a coincidence that it was barely a decade after the U.S. made it to the Pacific that one of these nations tried to break free. The First Imperial Project was complete, and the very real and obvious differences could no longer be ignored. After that nation was brought back into the Empire by the bayonet, the United States launched a new imperial project to become a global power. For a while it worked, but after the end of the Cold War, and especially since the Iraq War broke the Empire’s war machine, these nations are realizing more and more just how different they are and have no reason to stay in the Union. That is the greatest threat to United States hegemony over the Americas, the end of the United States itself!

Should this ever happen, I suspect the Americas will be in the situation Europe was in from the fall of Rome until the end of World War II, a region without a hegemon. However, there will be some nations more powerful than others, and I think a Free Dixie has tremendous opportunities. Stretching from the Chesapeake to the Florida Keys and from the Outer Banks to west Texas, Dixie would control a sizable territory. Plus, we have already developed a strong national identity, giving us a clear advantage over other nations that are just beginning to realize their nationhood. Though a Free Dixie is unlikely to become a hegemon over all of the Americas as the United States did, it does stand a good chance to become a great regional power, similar to what France or Germany once were for Europe. 

If the American Empire manages to retain its hegemony anywhere, it will be the Americas for geographical, historical, and political reasons – it’s too far away from any other viable power, it means too much for the United States, and the other nations in the Americas are too poor or weak. But this is no guarantee. The eternal tensions are simply too stark to ignore any longer, and there cannot be a Third Imperial Project to distract the nations within the Empire. Each of these nations are now realizing this. And here, Dixie has an advantage. The horrors of the War and Reconstruction taught us that we were a nation of our very own. As the United States falls, Dixie must take this opportunity and fully realize her nationhood.