How The Empire Dies, Part 8: Catholic and Protestant Europe

Author’s Note: This is the eighth part in a multipart series examining the decline of the American Empire and what it means for the world on a regional basis. This article will focus on Catholic and Protestant Europe.

The fate of the American Empire in Catholic and Protestant Europe is difficult to predict because of the diversity of nations in question. As was discussed in a previous section, the fate of Orthodox Europe is clear, Russia has long been the leader of the Orthodox world and will reestablish herself as such. There is a reason why Russia has little interest (for now) in Catholic, western Ukraine, Russia considers it too difficult to control. Orthodox Europe has an emerging hegemon, but Catholic and Protestant Europe do not, and, in fact, has a major power vacuum looming. The central rub here is that Catholic and Protestant Europe (hereby referred to as simply the “Western Core”) is unique in that nothing really replaced Rome. The Middle East, India, and China all saw major empires fall, but soon after that another nation would be able to reestablish hegemony over the respective regions. But, that did not happen in the Western Core. Rome fell and was replaced with nothing. The origins of this are numerous, though one of the major reasons is that because the Western Core is peninsula after peninsula (including mountain ranges), that means that there is no real central location to hold an empire together, it is hard for conquering armies to march down so many peninsulas and hold them at the same time.

This geography was then reinforced by a culture that resisted any kind of hegemon from rising. That is why, throughout European history, we can see states such as Spain (Thirty Years’ War), France (War of Spanish Succession) and Germany (The Great War and World War II) threaten to become a hegemon only to have the other nations of Europe consolidate against them. That is also the reason why the United Kingdom worked so hard to stay out of continental European affairs, especially during the 19^th century; the British understood that a rising continental power would be sacked by the rest of Europe and why they only entered European affairs when another nation threatened to become the hegemon (Napoleonic France). This is also the origin of the European fighting spirit and the ability to innovate. Constant competition between rival powers meant that the nations of the West had to adapt or die, rather than develop a sense of complacency like India or China.

This centuries old practice ended after World War II, Europe was divided between two hegemons and after one hegemon fell, the other just moved further east. But much like the rest of the world, the American Empire cannot remain the supreme power over Europe forever. The Empire’s control over the Western Core may last a little longer than the Middle East or the Pacific, mostly because of the lack of a serious challenger. Plus, the generation that has any good will towards the Americans (because of WWII) is very old. Also, the other generation that is friendly towards the U.S. (because of the Cold War) is now firmly middle-aged. That means that the younger generation, be they on the Left or the Right, is more likely to view the U.S. as an imperial master rather than a liberator. Eventually, this generation will attain political power and that will cause serious strain between the Western Core and the American Empire.

Additionally, there is the looming population crisis. There is a great diversity within the Western Core on this point. Some nations, such as Poland and Hungary, are doing fine, thanks largely to nationalistic policies designed to increase the native birthrate. However, other European nations are in dire straits, but the situation can still be turned around with the proper policies. Unfortunately, some nations, such as Germany and Italy, are in such a dangerous demographic position that there appears to be little hope for them. It is not the case that Germany or Italy will simply be depopulated, rather it will likely be that increasing Muslim populations will gain more and more political and cultural power. If (or when) this happens, we will witness an even greater and rapid decline in American power in the Western Core.

The United States has been able to create and maintain hegemony in the West because of a shared civilization, as well as, good will from World War II and the Cold War. Nevertheless, it will be unable to do so in an Islamified Western Core. In such an event, there is no shared culture and there is certainly no good will. Also, this would mean that certain European countries are pulled into the Middle East sphere of influence (in an almost colonial-like situation). If this happens anywhere, it will be in Germany. Not only is Germany in deep demographic decline, the Muslims settling in Germany are, for the most part, Turks, a nation that threatens to become a major regional player in its own right. As Germany becomes more Turkified, I expect to see Turkey exercise more influence over what was once Germany.

I suspect nations like Poland and Hungary, both in a position to survive demographically, will seek to become islands of resistance. These nations, especially Poland, are between a rock and a hard place. Deeply socially conservative, they have no place in a post-Christian Western Core, but they are also afraid of falling into Russia’s sphere of influence for obvious historical reasons, although I am not sure how long this can last. China, too, has significant ties to the region. What all this adds up to is the Western Core divided. Some of it will still be under waning American influence. American influence will likely decrease in the United Kingdom and France last because of the historic ties with those nations. Some of it will be under Middle Eastern (likely Turkish) or Chinese influence. And, some will be islands fighting for their own sovereignty.

In one way, the situation will be similar to how it has been since the fall of Rome – there will be no single hegemon. But there will be one major difference this time – there will not be an independent Western Core. The fact that the U.S. will eventually lose influence over vast areas of the West is a major development, as it will signify the complete collapse of the Western order. Europe was the center of that order – see NATO – and it will soon be gone. The Cold War started as a fight to protect the Western Core from communism. Asia was only a minor consideration at first, at least until the loss of China. George Kennan’s original formation of containment only focused on stopping the Soviet Union from moving westward. It was not until the Korean War that it become a global policy. The loss of the Western Core would imply the end of the Empire’s ability to protect the region it shares a civilization with, and with that, even more prestige and a further signal to the world that the “American Century” is decisively over.