Why DeSantis is Losing and Trump will Lose

It is not a surprise that Trump is winning in the primaries. He is and always would be the “800lbs gorilla in the room.” With a diehard foundation of support within the primary base (about 45%) and a presidential title, it was always going to be a challenge to defeat Trump in the primaries. This is especially true given that there is a general belief among the vast majority of Republicans that the Democratic Party cheated in 2020 and the election was stolen from Donald Trump. To those Republican primary voters who strongly believe Trump was robbed, re-electing Trump to run in 2024 is effectively a collective “F-You” to those who hate Trump and his voters. They are not giving up. Meanwhile, the other approximately 55% of the Republican Party prefers something new – even if they like Trump and would not mind if he won the primary. To date, the leader within that jam packed majority is Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.

Unfortunately for DeSantis, his campaign has been terrible. There are a number of reasons that DeSantis’ campaign has failed to resonate thus far, which I will address in this article. But the key reason that DeSantis has not taken off is due to the fact that Trump was able to define DeSantis early and the new image of Ron DeSantis – the most accomplished conservative governor in modern American history – is now based on a combination of scurrilous lies spewed by Trump sycophants and Trump’s embrace of Far-Left criticisms of the governor as “facts.” The oddity of Trump’s base was that it frequently and ironically embraced extreme leftist talking points to besmirch rightwing challenges to MAGA orthodoxy. Now, it uses leftist talking points to attack DeSantis. For a number of reasons, DeSantis has been ineffective in his counter punches.

It is my personal opinion that this week is DeSantis’ last chance to win the election. That is saying a lot, but I do not believe it is hyperbole. All guns will focus on DeSantis at the first Republican debate which will, no doubt, receive point-by-point criticism of DeSantis’ responses from Trump on Truth Social in real time. Meanwhile, every other candidate in the room knows that they simply have to survive. Knock out DeSantis and you become the presidential nominee for the Republican Party. Why? Because there is literally no pathway to victory for Donald Trump in the 2024 general election.

Before I go further and explain why Trump cannot win in 2024, let me state that I am not a fan of Trump. I was a big fan of Trump in 2016 and liked much of what he said. But I watched Trump fail as president to rein-in an out-of-control Deep State when he had every mechanism of power to stop them. Trump is well-intentioned on many levels, but he is not the guy to get things done that need to be done. To better illustrate the real Trump dynamic, try to envision the following scenario.

A cancer patient is dying of a particularly aggressive form of cancer. It is everywhere and it is bad. The patient will die without the cancer’s removal. Into the cancer patient’s room walks two men. One is in a suit, and one is in scrubs. The one in the suit holds a sledgehammer and a sign that reads “cancer.” The one in scrubs has nothing in his hands.

The one in the suit proceeds to tell the patient that he hates cancer. That cancer must be destroyed. He takes the sign that reads “cancer” and proceeds to smash the cancer sign with his sledgehammer on the ground. He obliterates the cancer sign. He inspires the cancer patient. The cancer patient is elated! He, too, cannot wait to smash cancer. The man in the suit was never able to defeat cancer before. In fact, the cancer is attacking the man in the suit, as well. But that does not matter. The man in the suit articulates everything the cancer patient feels. He loves the man in the suit. After a brief pep talk, the man in the suit walks down the hall to the next patient’s room and repeats the message. Then, the man in the scrubs gets to speak.

In a dispassionate voice, the man in the scrubs says, “I have personally defeated cancer. I successfully carved out cancer and saved my previous patient. I can do the same for you, but it will not be easy. I will have to cut you open. You will undergo a brutal chemo regime. The cancer will tell you to surrender. It will fight me every step of the way. But if you do what I tell you to do, and trust my scalpel, I will save you from cancer.”

The patient is happy to hear that the man in the scrubs has defeated cancer before. But the patient is not inspired by the man in the scrubs. He is dull. The patient loves the enthusiasm of the man in the suit who also has cancer and yet, neither defeated the cancer in the past nor has the technical expertise to remove the cancer today. Still, he opts for the man in the suit – because he likes him more.

Trump is the man in the suit. DeSantis is the man in the scrubs. Worse, Trump is the man in the suit who convinces the cancer patient that DeSantis, the man in the scrubs, is part of “Team Cancer.” It is not logical. Clearly the man in the scrubs has been cancer’s worst nightmare since he arrived on the scene. It does not matter. There is no convincing the patient that the doctor is the better option over the entertainer.

What is worse about this scenario is that Trump has no pathway to a 2024 general election victory. It does not matter if he is beating Biden or any other hypothetical candidate in national polls. The Electoral College is that which matters most. Trump simply cannot win for two reasons: (1) electoral math is not in any Republican candidate’s favor (Trump, DeSantis, or otherwise) and (2) Trump will be convicted in Georgia, ending any potential political path to victory. Here is how this breaks down.

In order for any Republican candidate to win in 2024, they need to keep all of the electoral votes that were won in 2020. Then, they have to win back Georgia and at least one other major “swing” state: PA, AZ, MI, or VA. Trump can do neither for both legal and cold political reasons.

As it pertains to Georgia, Governor Brian Kemp showed Trump who was boss in his Southern state. Yankee politicians can win in Georgia. They cannot win without the support of the Southern political machines that have stood guard over black voting blocs for nearly a century and a half. The fact is, Kemp won the primary despite Trump’s intense attacks on Kemp’s character and a Trump-backed challenger. Then, Kemp won the gubernatorial election by a comfortable eight percentage points. At the same time, Kemp denied Senate candidate Herschel Walker the full support of his own powerful political machine. Walker lost to Warnock in a lesson to Trump: stay out of Georgia politics.

It is highly unlikely that Kemp or Trump will mend fences. Georgian politicians are playing the long game of internal political power. Like nearby Florida and Alabama, Georgia political actors have no investment in federal elections if those federal election victories threaten in-state power. These are fiefdoms and there is a tight relationship between Georgia power brokers, money, and elected officials that is hard for outsiders to understand. Without that political machine, Trump cannot win in Georgia. But there is another reason he cannot win Georgia: Trump will be disqualified from running in that state.

Trump will be convicted in Fulton County. It is not right. In fact, I think it is a travesty of justice. Unfortunately, as we have seen before, “fair” is not the current cancer-ridden political environment within which we operate. Fulton County is a majority black county with a large proportion of leftwing, White Yankee transplants who hope to make Georgia a blue state in perpetuity. The county’s demographic profile is antagonistic toward Trump. Trump will not get a fair trial in Fulton. When Trump is convicted, he will be automatically disqualified as a candidate for civil office (i.e., president) in the state of Georgia. The only chance he has is a pardon. That pardon process is somewhat in Governor Kemp’s hands, but not directly.

Georgia pardons are reviewed and issued by a review board – the Georgia State Board of Pardons and Paroles. It is a five-person panel chosen by the governor. Kemp can request an expedited review, but he cannot force a review. If that panel agrees to issue a pardon, it is then sent to the attorney general for a legal review before it is signed by the governor – making it official. The average length of time to go through the board is one year. It should be assumed that the process would take about three months at the fastest: 30 days to receive the request and comply with the conditions of the selection process; 30 days to hold a panel hearing on the merits of the request; 30 days to issue and set the pardon. Meanwhile, throughout this time, the felony convict (Trump) would be inadmissible to run for president in Georgia. You do not have to like it – that is just a fact.

At present, Trump is hoping to postpone the trial to April 2024. In effect, he wants to be the Republican nominee before he is convicted in Georgia. That is grotesquely selfish on the part of Trump, but not a surprise. August is the cut-off for a named candidate to be entered upon a Georgia ballot for president. If his case were held in April, and he is convicted that same month, the earliest he can expect a pardon is late-July – barely enough time to make the Georgia ballot. A hair in the wrong direction makes it impossible for ANY Republican candidate to get on the ballot, if Trump is still a felon at the end of July. In essence, Trump’s selfish behavior would rob a Republican alternative the chance to a name on a ballot and, in essence, guarantee Democrats pickup Georgia’s critical 16 electoral votes – ending the contest for any Republican. If you lose Georgia, you lost the election.

At a minimum, Trump should be asking for an immediate trial in Georgia to provide the maximum amount of time necessary to secure a pardon. The selfless man would do that. Trump is not a selfless man.

The other problem are the other “swing” states in question: AZ, PA, MI, and VA. To be sure, now that they have Democrat governors and Democrat secretaries of state, Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Michigan are going nowhere. They are blue. The only thing that has changed since 2020 is that these three states became more leftist in terms of their political machinations. Regardless as to who the Republican nominee may be, they will not win those three states. That leaves Virginia.

Unlike other Southern states, Virginia’s Republican power brokers are not Southern dominated political machines like those found in Georgia. This is a Yankee dominated political machine that is greatly influenced by Congressional District VA-2 (Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads). There are really four Virginias: (1) Northern Virginia (NOVA) – the Deep State’s bedroom community; (2) Hampton Roads – the military’s power hub; (3) Richmond – a concentration of black and Far Left political power; and (4) Rural Virginia. In order for a Republican to win Virginia, he has to win 55% of Hampton Roads, hold or exceed 40% of NOVA, and push Rural Virginian voter participation above 70%. Trump is unlikely to do that in Hampton Roads, as the area has slid more to the Left/soft-Right as the military has changed. He can win Hampton Roads, he just cannot rely on a dominant victory that overcomes NOVA’s deleterious impact on state political outcomes. Unfortunately, Trump never exceeded 35% of the NOVA vote – making Hampton Roads all the more important.

Putting this in perspective, Republican gubernatorial candidate Glenn Youngkin was able to win because he was the better alternative to McAuliffe in a state with Democrat fatigue and he never threatened the fragile sensibilities of NOVA housewives. Youngkin looked more like a guy hiding by the hors d’oeuvres at a political fundraiser than a candidate. Youngkin consequently over performed in NOVA (he did not win it), due to a stronger performance in Loudoun County, while outright winning Hampton Roads.

In order for a Republican to have any chance at winning the presidential election in 2024, he must win Georgia and Virginia. Trump can do neither. The political realities, law, and math is simply not there for Trump. It is for the boring guy named Ron DeSantis.

I have watched and indirectly worked on the DeSantis campaign in 2022. In an odd reversal, unlike Trump whom I adored in 2016, I did not like DeSantis in 2018. I was angry at Trump for supporting DeSantis over Florida Cracka’ Adam Putnam. I refused to vote for Republican Senate candidate, then-Governor, Rick Scott, after he signed red flag laws and pulled General Kirby Smith’s statue off the state grounds, replacing it with a statue to an obscure black woman. I saw nothing in DeSantis that made me think he would not be another Rick Scott. Still, in 2018, I voted for DeSantis because I despised black Democrat candidate Andrew Gillum. Little did I know how wrong I was about my initial feelings regarding DeSantis.

Ron DeSantis went on to become the most successful Republican political operative in modern American history. He was a Godsend to Florida. Despite a three-week closure during the early period of Covid at Fauci and Trump’s behest (March 29^th – April 17^th), Florida remained mostly open throughout Covid. For Floridians, we were inundated with Trump bashing DeSantis’ reckless reopening of the Florida economy on local news. Trump was joined by leftist agitators equally bashing DeSantis’ open but sensible economy. Fauci and Trump called DeSantis “a murderer” and the political Left ran with the story. DeSantis ignored them. The rift would only grow from there.

In Florida, county sheriffs can overrule local town or city councils if they feel their policies will lead to greater criminality. They can bypass local district attorneys and seek state assistance, if the charges are brought by the county, not the city. This is not the case for self-regulated cities, like Miami (soon to end), whereby the city and the sheriff are one body. Such an arrangement is rare in Florida. During 2020, when the BLM and antifa riots broke out throughout the country, the Trump team had the power to compel the use of the National Guard through the Insurrection Act. Southerners may not like the act for obvious historical reasons, but the power was there. Trump chose not to use it (speculation was that Kushner felt it would upset Trump’s chances at the black vote). DeSantis, with the help of county sheriffs and the attorney general, crushed BLM and antifa throughout the state. When city councils ordered the police to stand down in Tampa, Miami, and Jacksonville, DeSantis and the county sheriffs went into the cities and arrested everybody, Then, the state AG prosecuted to the fullest extent of the law. There are still antifa members in Florida prisons learning about racial reality in a painful way at the time of this writing. The difference was astounding: Trump hid in the basement of the White House while the antifa burned St. John’s Church across the street; DeSantis sent dogs, batons, and non-lethal bullets into cities throughout Florida. It got better for Floridians…

When Trump lost the 2020 election (or it was stolen), the Covid vaccine was beginning to emerge. Throughout 2021, Covid vaccine usage was beginning to get introduced. Although Florida, like every other state, made it available, DeSantis refused to compel its use. By late 2021, Florida was one of a few states that had laws in place that made it illegal to mandate the vaccine to engage in social activities or employment. In fact, the state went to court to sue cruise lines that required the vaccine to board their ships.

At the same time that DeSantis protected Floridians from the vaccine, he simultaneously passed laws that did the following: outlawed in-street protests (2021), made it legal to use your vehicle as a “stand your ground” weapon in the event of an illegal street protest (2021), passed a law that protected all Confederate monuments from removal (2021), passed a death penalty for child molesters (2022), passed a ban on teaching Critical Race Theory (2021), passed a ban on compelling CRT within businesses (2022), banned child sexual and gender identity education (2021 & 2022), banned transgender “therapies” for minors (2022), passed a Constitutional Carry Law (2022), passed an abortion restriction law, and realigned Congressional districts that permanently removed two black Congressional fiefdoms and added five Republican Congressional districts to the House. In fact, had DeSantis not done that which he did, the House of Representatives would still be in Democrat hands.

Today, Florida is the only state in the United States with a triple-A credit rating, a budget surplus, and no state income tax. Florida’s unemployment rate is 2.7%. Perfect unemployment for the United States was considered 3.2%. If Florida were an independent country, it would be the 14^th largest economy in the world and the fastest growing economy in the past 120 years of any country other than Germany from 1934 – 1938.

More importantly to Floridians who understand the political inside baseball of the state, DeSantis broke Jeb Bush’s hold on Florida state politics. To be sure, the Jeb wing is making DeSantis pay for it, by backing Trump (an insult to the incumbent governor). Representative Matt Gaetz (FL-1) is a good example of a Jeb Bush acolyte and enemy of DeSantis. Gaetz, who worked on Jeb’s failed 2015 campaign against Trump, is also the son of former Florida Senate President and Jeb Bush’s best friend in Florida politics, Don Gaetz. Thus, the current Florida congressional delegation supporting Trump is a “whose-who” of anti-DeSantis activists within the Florida Republican Party. But it does not matter. The state is now fundamentally remade.

The Jeb v DeSantis feud began in 2015. Something that escaped me at the time, because I was living in Virginia, was that DeSantis went on a war path against US Sugar – Jeb Bush’s largest financial investment in the state. Congressman DeSantis accused the company of destroying the Everglades ecosystem, tying up Florida’s farmers in expensive land disputes, and exploiting Florida tax laws to avoid paying their taxes. Correspondingly, when DeSantis won the 2018 gubernatorial election, an outgoing Jeb Bush ally, Rick Scott, appointed 70 officials to various political and judiciary positions on his last day of office to keep DeSantis from implementing his own policies. It took almost four years for the DeSantis team to methodically cut out the Jeb Bush influences from the state and remake them into his new image.

Yet, despite all of this success and formidable political capacity, DeSantis’ campaign is floundering. He is losing to Trump in a spectacular way. Here is the reason why: DeSantis is running within Trump’s political framework using an establishment playbook.

DeSantis is not the establishment. He never was. No one from the establishment has endorsed DeSantis to date. Even the nefarious Paul Ryan never endorsed DeSantis. They have complimented his political capacity, which has been used by the Trump team to accuse DeSantis of being a member of the establishment. The fact is, if you listen to their carefully scripted words, they bash DeSantis frequently, by attempting to emphasize “economic issues” (mantra of CON Inc.) over social issues (DeSantis’ bread and butter). DeSantis, who is well to the political Right of Trump in both actions and policies was branded early and often by Trump thanks to an establishment that wanted the two populists to knock each other out – leading to a Nikki Haley, Tim Scott, or Milquetoast-du-Jour candidate to emerge as the victor.

As a naval officer and a lawyer, DeSantis is far too scripted. His answers are way too long. His heart and ability are in the right place. He needs to practice the art of short answers. DeSantis was legally constrained from responding to Trump’s early attacks on DeSantis due to the Florida Constitution. That disabled the DeSantis campaign early. If you ask a Trump supporter about DeSantis, they will describe him as an establishment pick, supported by George Soros, Jeb Bush, Paul Ryan, and a fraud. All of it is untrue, but you cannot tell that to Cult-45. They now believe DeSantis tore down Confederate statues (he didn’t), implemented red flag laws (he didn’t), and pushed the Covid vaccine (he didn’t).

One other element that is killing the DeSantis campaign is the near fatal so-called antisemitism “hate crime” bill. Whereas the bill did not start with DeSantis (that was FL Rep Mike Caruso), nor did he fly to Israel to sign the bill (he was in Israel as part of a conference when the bill passed), and the bill is toothless (it applies to incidents on private property), the overall chilling effect that the bill has had on any potential rightwing support online is immeasurable. “Zion Ron” lacks the force multiplying message amplification he might have gotten from the Right had he ran on his record and avoided a bill that is highly unpopular. Like it or not, Trump won in 2016 because the Alt-Right played a crucial role in spreading Trump’s message on social media platforms that amplified the candidate’s messaging when it was blocked out by establishment media mechanisms. DeSantis cannot gain traction as the anti-transgender, anti-groomer candidate because he has no army of social media warriors spreading funny or cutting memes on his behalf. Even if Trump’s memes have gone full Boomertard cringe, they are at least spread around the internet. DeSantis no longer has such a willing army and that has more to do with that antisemitism bill than he or his team may realize. They would be wise to find a way to target a group that attacks a Christian church using that same law (which extends to church protections) and make an example of some antifa patsies.

To regain his position within the party, DeSantis needs to be a modern Ronald Reagan type candidate – happy warrior/effective governor. He needs to run on his incredible record. He needs to avoid the trappings of the Trump team. He needs to systematically crush each of his opponents and then position himself as the only logical choice for the 2024 presidential election. Then, he needs to smile while he rhetorically stabs Trump with 45’s many failures. Whomever is the last person standing against Trump will be the nominee, thanks to Georgia. That will take survival.

Can DeSantis do that? I am not sure his handlers will let him be the type of national candidate that his Florida state persona shows. One thing is for sure: if he comes across poorly during this debate, he is done.