Alea Iacta Est: The Inevitable Blue Wave

The more I look at the data, the more 2024 being the death date for the Republican Party becomes even more a certainty.  A political candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win and, in 2016, Trump only got 304 while Clinton got 227.  It will be surprising if he can replicate this in 2020, but it seems untenable to have any Republican replicate it, or even get 270, after the 2024 election.  Ignoring voter enthusiasm and the fact that Trump (and the Republican Party) is barely even paying lip service to their constituency, the demographics make it all but a certainty.

It’s not possible to know how “white” America is because of the dubious “white Hispanic” category. Granted, we (probably) all know white Hispanics with blonde hair, blue eyes, and the same beliefs we have, but the problem is that “white Hispanic” often is misapplied. The Texas Department of Public Safety top 10 most wanted had 8 “white Hispanics,” but 7 of those 8 are quite clearly of non-European descent. Because of that, the actual “white” share of the population is unknowable.  For that reason, the “non-Hispanic white” category is probably the most valuable for seeing the demographic shift.

All of the states in the union are facing declines of non-Hispanic whites proportionate to general population.  Overall, non-Hispanic whites are still growing at 1.4%, but other demographic groups are growing faster everywhere (except for DC). While neocons want to pretend we’re a “nation” based on “shared values” (though few are willing to pin down what those values are and none are willing to poll test how many actually hold those values), the reality is Americans largely vote along racial lines. The decline of non-Hispanic whites means the decline of Republicans. 

Less than half of US children under 15 are white, according to Brookings. According to Pew, the most common age among whites in U.S. is 58 whereas for all other ethnic groups, it’s under 30. This means that as the Boomers die (a consistently electorally Conservative demographic) they are being replaced with an overwhelmingly Democratic group.  Short of birth rates drastically changing soon, or some other great shift, over half the American electorate will be non-white in the foreseeable future. Once that happens, even if whites collectively woke up and began voting for their ethnic self-interest, they would still be unable to win elections (unless the non-white coalition was unable to unite sufficiently on election day). This means that on a national level, it will be impossible to have a “Conservative” executive branch within a few years. Looking at the current demographics of the states and the way the electoral college works, 2024 seems like the point where a Democrat in the executive branch becomes a certainty in perpetuity. After all, in 5 years, a great share of the boomers will die and a great share of that under 15 demographic will be able to vote. Texas, with its 38 electoral votes, is a state with great numbers of Hispanic births and will likely go blue in 2024. Adding Texas to Clinton’s 2016 electoral map would have given her 265 out of the needed 270 electoral votes. As of 2012, Georgia was at 55% non-Hispanic white and Florida at 56.8%. It wouldn’t be surprising for those numbers to shift by 2024 and both states to go blue. After all, the somewhat painful 2016 Georgia gubernatorial race was quite close.

This shift will also mean the Senate and the House become overwhelmingly blue. There will still be some potential red holdouts in the House, but it won’t be enough to disrupt the plan. Once the demographics shift enough, 2050 looking like the latest date, redrawing of districts could be such that a Democrat is in every House seat.

The judiciary will change more slowly, but it will still change. Assuming Ginsberg lives through the Trump presidency, the court will begin going to the left probably shortly after 2024. Ginsberg would get replaced by a judge like Kagan, a leftist who is still “respectable.” It’s a 5-4 “Conservative” court right now, but all it takes is Clarence Thomas dying under a Democrat president to shift it the other way. Thomas, aged 71, will also likely be replaced by another “respectable” judge because he probably doesn’t have long left, given average life expectancy of black people is 75. However, that 5-4 Liberal court will slowly move further to the left. As the electorate changes demographically, the growing extremism in the Senate will mean the white and Jewish senators who want to confirm “respectable” folks will be replaced by lower IQ ethnocrats like AOC, Ilhan Omar, and Rashida Tilab. The new Senate will happily confirm worse, more activist judges. This Far Left shift in the Supreme Court will probably happen once Roberts and Alito are replaced, which I would estimate will be sometime in the 2030s, possibly 2035 and 2036. Gorsuch and Kavanaugh will be anachronisms on the court of a time when there was still some pretense of deference to the Constitution.

There was a small window in 2016 and 2017 where I thought it was possible on a national level to reverse these trends. If Trump had drained the swamp/deep state and taxed remittances so high that foreigners voluntarily leave, in addition to actual immigration controls, whites would start feeling more hopeful for the future and the birth rates would improve and America could possibly reset the clock and continue on a healthy trajectory. All of these were things I thought possible on a national level, but now it seems that the die is cast, and nothing on the national level will improve under the Leviathan. No man in D.C. can help us, so it’s all the more important to find local communities for mutual support and stand strong together.