Assuming the conflict in Ukraine doesn’t escalate into nuclear war, the one thing I’m sure about is that the people who got us into it won’t stop lying. I think the best they’re hoping for is to freeze the front lines through some sort of a ceasefire agreement which they’ll market as having saved what’s left of Ukraine by fighting Russia to a standstill. That’ll be easy for Biden to mumble on a debate stage next year.
The agreement would be cited as evidence that the U.S. was able to inflict so many casualties by backing the Ukrainian freedom fighters that the Russians were forced to give up and then we had to focus on Taiwan. The “failed siege of Kiev” canard is a linchpin in this narrative. It’s all convenient rhetoric for the parrots. Everybody is doing it now instead of claiming that Russian forces will surrender or desert as the SMO collapses under a Ukrainian onslaught, which probably demonstrates this is the official narrative shift that’s been settled on.
It would explain why they’ve already been declaring victory but conceding they’re not getting Donbass or Crimea, but since these areas were already contested before Putin’s unprovoked invasion, it’s pretty much a total victory. The average American is ignorant and gullible so that could constitute a success from a public relations perspective. I wouldn’t expect one to ever figure out what really happened in Ukraine. However, I seriously doubt things will wrap up this neatly. Perhaps this plan constitutes more “high on your own supply of BS” thinking that Putin is losing so badly he’ll have to accept a ceasefire when Biden offers one.
Experiencing the human dimension of this conflict has been grim but also alarming. I’ve got friends and associates on both ethnic sides of this thing and some severely wounded as mercenaries. In fact, I was working with both Ukrainians and Russians on a (totally unrelated) project when the SMO began. We just didn’t collectively discuss politics, that was really the only way to navigate the situation.
The nationalist Ukrainians genuinely felt they were winning. Meanwhile, a former Russian paratrooper told me he expected to be called back by 2023 in order to storm Kiev. My Polish friends also thought the Russians were losing comically hard exactly like the media portrayed. When considering what lunacy the Poles could get themselves talked into, don’t underestimate their enmity with the Russians and just how many centuries back that goes.
The most tragic thing I observed was when my friend’s mother perished in his hometown of Mariupol. My suspicion is that it could’ve been a human shield scenario, but that obviously wouldn’t be something about which I’d inquire. He’s not a political guy at all and didn’t think a conflict on this scale was a realistic possibility even a few days before the SMO got underway.
From the NATO side of the equation, everything was premised on the immediate collapse of the Russian economy by sanctions and the Russian Federation’s subsequent descent into domestic turmoil. There was never any realistic plan for a prolonged conflict with the Russian Army directly involved. None of the Eastern Europeans I talked to, except for the Russians, seemed to understand this angle.
The official claim is that we’re having trouble supplying the Ukrainians because the effort is an impromptu response to an unprovoked invasion. The reality is that the people who provoked the SMO conceived of an idiotic idea through their own hatred and ambition for global domination. Creating the situations they outlined in white papers was simply a fantasy.
The American military apparatus suddenly tasked with countering a massive Russian military operation on their own border lacks leadership with the courage to speak out and relies on officers educated in such matters through a “high on our own supply of BS” process to the point where many can’t think realistically about what’s actually happening in this conflict.
My Ukrainian associates don’t accept that the Russian citizens of their country have legitimate grievances against the government. Ukraine is Ukrainian, so they’re free to GTFO. That’s the take on it I encounter, and it does explain a bit about why the U.S. has been able to exploit them into keeping this slaughter going on for so long. Also, just like with the Poles, don’t underestimate just how bad their experiences were with the Russians within living memory.
In terms of the Russians in Ukraine, when a population that used to be part of a different nation for centuries is put under a government which bans its language and religious denomination while deliberately killing them by the thousands through the shelling of residential areas, one can argue that his irredentist desires have been legitimated. As a Russian put it to me, if Kiev cares about Crimea so much, why did it cut off the water and electricity?
The Russians I talk to assert that if their forces pulled out of Ukraine, there’d be a massive ethnic cleansing operation against their civilians who didn’t flee in advance. Given the sheer hatred for Russians by the people who hijacked America, I think this is something our government would encourage while their media machine covers it up. Zelensky has even promised there will be “filtration” operations on the people they’re going to liberate.
My personal take on the situation is that none of this slaughter needed to happen and that the best way to address the divide within Ukraine was a framework for regional autonomy reached in the Minsk Accords. That seems to have been the same as Putin, who kept demanding they be implemented before ordering the tanks to start rolling. The locals wanted to join Russia right away back in 2014 but he told them no for good reasons. For a country the size of Russia, getting some territory back isn’t worth these many lives and the potential for escalation.
Domestically, it would appear that as long as the SMO keeps making progress, the average Russian will support it for as long it requires. In terms of the combat situation, it appears that the Ukrainian military could fall apart due to the appalling death toll, the continued destruction of infrastructure, and the inability to keep its forces adequately supplied or compensated. Without billions a month from the American Empire, Ukraine is a failed state overnight. Even if the money keeps flowing, the material situation will keep deteriorating towards this outcome.
One explanation for this massive Russian buildup isn’t that they’re going to launch huge offensives through minefields to bring the conflict to a quick and decisive end. Rather, they’ll continue to preserve their own troops by doing most of the fighting from a safe distance at a pace they can sustain logistically for the long term. The hundreds of thousands in the rear will be deployed to secure the territory Russia wants after Ukraine falls apart or surrenders. This could be everything east of the Dneiper and the entire Black Sea coast. That would require an enormous force because this is territory equivalent in size to multiple U.S. states.
It appears Putin was genuinely surprised that the Minsk Accords were negotiated in bad faith, which European leaders have since openly admitted. The implications for German and French leaders announcing that they openly lied to their counterpart’s face in order to set up a scenario to wreck his country doesn’t bode well for any sort of peace agreement. This points to a final settlement imposed by Russia rather than negotiated to anything that would satisfy the Ukrainians.
Foreign Minister Lavrov has stated that Russia won’t even bother negotiating with them because they were defeated last year and this is now a conflict with NATO. Kremlin spokesman Peskov has called for unconditional surrender. This could all be rhetorical bluster, or it might imply that enormous numbers of Ukrainians will be driven out of their homes as the Russians impose a massive DMZ to ensure that civilians can’t be shelled ever again. The notion that anything the U.S. has done in Ukraine was to help its people is infuriating.
Its abolition as a nation is also a distinct possibility because without the Russian areas, it’s no longer economically viable. What that would look like is unclear. Perhaps parts of it will be declared a new country free of all the debt that’s been racked up while others will go to neighbors. None of this is good for Ukrainians, that’s for sure.
The infrastructure in Ukraine is Soviet, which means that Russia is best equipped to repair it. What might happen is that they’ll force a surrender and appoint a puppet government to replace our puppet government. It might be that they don’t want to bother with the mess at all, and opt to leave it a failed state on the other side of a DMZ. That wouldn’t suit China’s Belt & Road Initiative, but it would save a lot of money and trouble. Either way, they’re not going to allow the place to be utilized against them again.
The conflict does seem to be approaching some sort of an inflection point. From NATO’s perspective, holding on to Bakhmut and launching a third counter offensive, which can be marketed as victory, are the best to hope for ahead of negotiations. In effect, they’re trading billions in equipment and munitions and tens of thousands of Ukrainian lives for public relations. It’s certainly not to fool the Russians into thinking someone else has the upper hand.
Now that the Ukrainian anti-aircraft network has been degraded, they’re able to deliver glide bomb sorties every day. The process of attrition through positional artillery battles that defined much of the conflict has now accelerated a great deal. The Russians have also clearly not run out of missiles and drones. At least two massive strikes sending hundreds at a time targeting the buildup for the counter offensive have been conducted. It might never really be able to get underway.
Bakhmut is on higher ground than the surrounding areas, which offers the defenders tremendous artillery advantages. Unlike Mariupol, there’s open lower ground on all sides so trying to surround it is a perilous proposition. It also features blocks of large concrete apartment buildings which were turned into a nightmare for the Russians. Zelensky was fine with sacrificing tens of thousands of lives to protect it. This meant it could hold out much longer than other contested urban areas, but the process of leveling the place is heading to a conclusion.
By the way, that’s being done by about 6,000 Wagner fighters who volunteered in exchange for incentives, like getting out of prison. It’s not possible to turn 6,000 live bodies into 100,000 corpses. How would they even be able to count this many while the Russians own the sky and obliterate the city block-by-block? The absurdity of the lies we’re being told is surreal.
There’s one more line where the Ukrainian army can make a stand, but it doesn’t offer the same advantages as this charnel house. What could be shaping up in Donetsk is a “slowly at first and then all at once” scenario after Bakhmut is completely subdued and the counter offensive stalls. After that, it’s pretty much open terrain.
Like I said, it’s not looking like the Biden Administration is going to be able to salvage the narrative it wants out of this insanity, let alone a freeze in the fighting to prevent the Russians from getting everything they seek. The best thing for the Ukrainians would be to give them what they demand and stop getting the male population of their country killed and maimed so there can be Ukrainians in the future. The ghouls who put them into this horror show are already moving on to Cold War 2.
I’m proud to officially announce my candidacy for the office of Dogcatcher.
It’s interesting when you consider the parallels between this war and WWII. Ukraine is to the United States as what Poland was to the United Kingdom: A proxy nation of useful idiots who will fight on behalf of the global hegemon for the off-chance of destroying a rising rival power. What we’re witnessing is another example of the Thucydides Trap in action, and with horrible results for the poor guys on the ground who have to die in a pointless war. Even assuming Ukraine somehow wins (they won’t), there won’t be enough of them to rebuild the country and undo the demographic collapse that has happened from this war. God forbid they up like Paraguay in the war of the Triple Alliance and lose 90% of their entire male population.
All their women are fleeing as well, so I wouldn’t be surprised if much of the country is left abandoned by the end of it all.
Ukraine was supposed to be the springboard from which the modern American anti-Caucasian genocide was to penetrate Eastern Europe in order to finish what the Bolsheviks started. Pretty interesting to see the western elites finally fail at forcing sodomy and race mixing somewhere. We live in interesting times.
Legit “Caucasians” = E.G. Chetchens. Just say White