While international events are full of nuance driven by opaque hands, there’s a big picture of the game that’s actually rather simple to discern. For example, Ukraine is being laid to waste because the United States was seeking to break up the Russian Federation, the largest nation on Earth possessing vast trillions worth of proven natural resource deposits and a military capable of deterring direct American military intervention.
Held together, it represents an insurmountable obstacle to the American Empire which has been aggressively seeking global hegemony since the end of the Cold War. It also backstops China, which is the other insurmountable obstacle scheduled for demolition after it’s out of the way.
Most of the federation’s geography is divided into sparsely-populated zones of non-Russian ethnic groups. Thus, there are fracture points along which it can be dismantled into controllable entities and a disingenuous moral premise for the process.
There’s no secret made of this objective, extensive information has been made available to the American public on mainstream platforms. Although the Russian public is familiar with the aim of the conflict, Americans can only recite a simple narrative about stopping “Putin’s unprovoked, full-scale invasion” because that’s what the media presses on them.
Still, it was openly discussed in the media by American imperial functionaries and Eastern Europeans who hate Russia were looking forward to this outcome. I watched the opening of the SMO unfold on TV, drinking in a cabin with Poles who were giddy about what had been marketed to them as the imminent demise of the Russian Federation. They were full of enthusiasm and didn’t want to hear anything to the contrary.
Poland had been used to start the Second World War by being provided with absurd security assurances in exchange for refusing to compromise with Germany over German land confiscated at the end of the First World War. Poland’s reward was getting destroyed and then conquered by Stalin. How Poland could’ve been protected from Germany by Britain or France still boggles the mind to this day.
What’s been outlined for official consumption in white papers since the end of the Cold War, but not meant for public discourse, is that Ukraine was intended to serve a similar function as Poland in terms of provoking a war meant to be the undoing of the Russian Federation. In a tragic similarity to the Poles, the Ukrainians can’t seem to wrap their heads around the fact that they’re used as pawns, and thus receiving a similar reward.
How NATO could’ve defended them against Russia from a geographical perspective alone is quite perplexing for a rational mind. The important thing here is that the Ukrainian mind in terms of Russia simply isn’t rational, which made them useful. Sure, this psychology was created through horrific experiences under the Soviets, among other things. Still, its utility is what explains Ukraine’s avoidable demise. I know plenty of Ukrainians and have never heard a more rational take on the situation from them than I’ve gotten from the Poles.
Not being able to rationally discern how you’re being used is the nature of a pawn. I’m not trying to employ this term in a pejorative fashion, just pointing out the ugly reality because no other piece of vocabulary fits better. Pawns don’t perceive the ultimate danger to themselves in how someone else moves them around the chessboard. I wouldn’t limit this label to the central and eastern stretches of Europe, either.
At this point, my take on the American career officer class is that nothing short of a shocking, humiliating, catastrophic defeat would ever clarify their thinking on the inadequacies of the U.S. military compared to its adversaries in the American Empire’s push for global supremacy. For example, an aircraft carrier taken out by hypersonic weapons. I’ve been told these pose little threat to American naval defenses.
They’d never give countenance to the possibility because they lack the capability to interpret global events in terms other than America being the righteous side holding the military advantages. If Russia wages a lengthy war of attrition against Ukraine mostly from a safe distance due to the challenges of massive scale, mud, minefields, and FPV drones in the 2020s, this is because it lacks the capabilities of the U.S. military which were proven against Iraq in 2003.
If Russia doesn’t take direct retaliatory action against the U.S. military, this is because it would lose against the U.S. military. Restraint is unequivocally weakness in their minds. I’ve never once heard otherwise in official discourse or any informal conversations on such topics. Hopefully, the situation in Ukraine ends without escalation. This now looks likely.
In whatever form the end takes, it will only serve to confirm their delusion. I’d continue to bet every cent I have on this one even as Odessa and the rest of the Black Sea coast is absorbed back into Russia. My expectation is that they’ll conclude that Russia prevailed by taking massive human wave casualties and America decided not to stop it for political reasons.
The real problem now is that the global conflict situation isn’t confined to Ukraine but driven by the American Empire’s master, Israel. This is another reality that someone pursuing a career in the U.S. military could ever acknowledge to himself, yet it would represent the most likely driving causality behind a future scenario featuring his death in the defense of America.
Most recently, American naval aviators nearly perished getting shot down by our own missiles trying to stop Houthi drones during their blockade of the Red Sea in response to Israel’s genocide in Gaza. The Houthis ceased their operations in conjunction with the ceasefire in Gaza. I’ve heard it declared a victory for the U.S. Navy. The problem is that no Israeli agreement to stop slaughtering Arabs is negotiated in good faith to last. The current ceasefire has already been violated by Israel.
The catastrophic death toll would probably come if the U.S. military is maneuvered into a confrontation that spirals out of control with Iran, which backs the Houthis. This isn’t what Trump is seeking, but that’s why he was allowed back into office by Jews anxious over Iranian resistance to Israeli expansion towards the contours of Greater Israel. Israel, in its present dimensions, is coming perilously close to the 80-year expiration date for Jewish kingdoms.
Iran’s hypersonic missile demonstration against Israel last fall was a restrained operation to showcase what it could do if suitably threatened without inflicting devastation that could provoke all-out war. Iran basically said as much and promised that if it had to strike again, the targets would be critical infrastructure.
However, the fact that the missiles were targeted to do things like fly over the Israeli Knesset before striking the ground constitutes evidence to American officers that the missiles didn’t work or were intercepted by the Iron Dome System. This was explained to me recently. It follows that such missiles couldn’t possibly be used for an operation like leveling Al Udeid Air Base just across the Persian Gulf in Qatar. Restraint is weakness. This has become an unbreakable principle of the American military mindset.
We’re in a situation where the pawns don’t see mortal threats, while the opponents they’re being utilized against fully appreciate the potential for disaster and thus continue to act with the utmost restraint. If their backs finally touch a wall, how does this escalate? The pawns will keep getting sent forward so that could be a question with unpleasant answers we’ll find out eventually.
I’m proud to officially announce my candidacy for the office of Dogcatcher.
