Biden (Obama’s) Christmas Gift to Trump

As many Americans – along with the rest of the world – enjoyed a Christmas holiday that will extend into the weekend, they are ignoring a massive geopolitical shift with far reaching consequences. That which occurred in Syria recently is easy to dismiss as a problem simply in the Middle East. The fact that one of the last governments (Assad) with an official policy of protection for Christians has been toppled, is bad enough. (Iran is now the last Middle Eastern country with a constitutional protection for Christians.) The fall of Syria makes a bigger problem for the incoming Trump Administration and a Europe that is not prepared for war: Turkey versus Israel.

For years, I have stated that Turkey is the natural ruler of the Middle East. Until the First World War, that was true. The historical role of the Seljuk and then Ottoman empires was an Islamic counterbalance to the Christian West. Beginning with theological arguments over Anglo-Saxon hegemony over Palestine in the late 19th century (i.e., the once prolific British Israelite belief that the true Israel was the Christian Church and that Anglo-Celtic peoples were from the lost Tribe of Dan), perspectives on the Middle East began to change. The importance of oil then thrust the Middle East into a new heightened priority. The engineered collapse of the Ottoman Empire gave way to a fractured, tribal Arabic region. This was viewed as a more easily manipulated means to protect British, French, and eventually American oil interests. Mustafa Kemal Ataturk did what he could to preserve the Turkish state and instituted reforms designed to modernize sclerotic Turkey, but Turkey began to wither away in overall influence and importance. By World War II, Turkey was a spectator.

In 1948, the United States embraced an Israel-first political posture that both placated the growing influence of Dispensationalist Christian voters and simultaneously provided a seaborn ally for the sake of oil protectionism. Meanwhile, Turkey was only preserved due to its geographic significance during the Cold War. The Turks were made NATO members despite the fact that they were a political and economic mess – especially in the 1960s and 1970s. (It is my belief that the invasion of fellow NATO member Greek Cyprus, and the subsequent Turkish occupation and division, was engineered by the Americans to keep both Greece and Turkey in NATO). Fast forward, and Turkey is not so weak anymore.

For years, Israel has sought to remove Assad because of his support for nationalist groups that happen to be Islamic (not necessarily Islamic specifically). Both Israel and Syria exploited natural fault lines in Lebanon to ostensibly build a secure “neutral” zone. During the Cold War, this led Syria toward the Soviet Union and eventually Russia. By the time Lebanon disintegrated, the United States, was already an Israeli proxy state with greater allegiance to Tel Aviv than Tulsa. It is important to note that Ronald Reagan sent the Marines into Beirut to undermine Israeli heavy handedness, defending both Muslim and Christian refugees when a bomb killed 239 Marines and 2 sailors in 1983. That bombing was blamed on Iran, but somehow, Israel benefited the most.

Turkey, meanwhile, used intelligence assets to monitor and quietly disrupt anti-Turkish elements in the region. There was not much more that it could do. During the Cold War, the Kurds were the chief obstacle to Turkish peace. Although the Kurds were believed to be an ethnic group with Soviet-inspired insurgents throughout the region, the Marxist rhetoric of the Partiya Karkerên Kurdistanê (PKK) belie a foundational truth: the United States had a very cozy relationship with the Marxist PKK despite the fact that the PKK murdered thousands of fellow NATO-member Turks.

When the United States went into Iraq in 2003, who greeted them? The PKK. When American antifa members were flying abroad to train on small arms, explosives, and violent tactics, who trained them? The PKK. When ISIS began to expand beyond its original mandate of dismantling Iranian influence in Syria and Iraq, who did the United States support? The PKK. As of this writing, the United States has 900 troops providing direct support to the anti-Turkish Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) – many of whom are or were members of the PKK.

Now Assad has fallen, reportedly by a Turkish-led assembly of Islamist groups coupled with Israeli military pressure from the South. The combination of Ha’yat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and the Syrian National Army (which is not really Syrian) has placed Damascus in the hands of Turkish allies who supposedly harbor no ill-will toward Israel. The latter point is most likely designed to placate the Americans and give the new regime breathing room to build a functioning pro-Turkish government. For years, Turkey has quietly built its influence in Turkic-speaking states in Central Asia, now they look south. Turkey has always seen Syria as a run-away territory, not unlike the way the Russians view Ukraine. The complexity of Turkish-Syrian relations is too great for a single article, but I can assure you that it is far too convoluted for most American bureaucrats to comprehend, thousands of miles away in DC. Worse, it is a major challenge for the incoming Trump Administration, gifted to them by the incompetent-ideologues in the Biden (Obama) CIA and DOD. Israel loves dumb Americans.

Fast forward, and we now have a more powerful Turkey on the periphery of a region that Israel claims is its own. Benjamin Netanyahu has said just that. The Turks have their own natural interests in the next state on the Levantine crescent: Lebanon. These interests include critical water and mineral rights that Israel has sought for years. The Golan Heights are not merely a great place to put communications towers. The Turks have had genuine security concerns with Israel’s support for Islamist and Marxist groups that have terrorized and murdered Turkish citizens for decades. Now, Turkey, which is a much more capable and financially stable state than Iran, can more directly support groups that can “give back” to Israel that which Israel gave to them.

So, what happens next – when Israel and Turkey eventually clash (which they will)? Turkey is a critical NATO member with geostrategic importance by virtue of its control of the Bosporus Strait. As the Americans foolishly toy with Russia, the importance of the Turks cannot be overstated. The United States needs Turkey more than the Turks need the American Empire. For centuries, the Persian and Turkish empires enjoyed a tense détente. Iran and Turkey cooperate today, largely with regard to intelligence operations designed to disrupt largely American-Israeli insurgents throughout the region. When Turkey’s new Syrian proxy finds itself at odds with Israel, this will lead to more Israeli aggression. Ultimately, that will pit NATO Turkey against Israel.

Does the United States back a NATO member over Israel? That will never happen. As I stated, the American government is an Israeli-proxy state. More likely, Turkey will eventually force a reckoning among NATO members to choose a new coalition or an American government that has done nothing for the other NATO members beyond paying the defense-spending tab and imposing homosexuality on European defense forces. When NATO disintegrates, watch for a massive geopolitical realignment and war – which Israel desperately wants.