From one of our regular readers:
Here from Western Rifle – looks very much worth reading carefully which I will do. But sure does have a sniff of Russia Rules / US Mil (and their lackeys) suck cheer leading commentary. You do not mention the two major warships that Ukr has sunk in the last two weeks (thus neutralizing the Black Sea fleet); nor do you mention the several Rus planes shot down in the last month – something is changing there and the Ukr F16s are soon to arrive. (And, by the way, just where has the Russian air force been the last two years combined-arms-operations wise?) And 50K Russian KIA so far? – probably ridiculous – they may have lost 50K just in the assault on Bakmut last winter when they emptied their prisons into Prigochin’s (sp) private military company. Perhaps you should seek out some Russian mil bloggers from whom I get much info.
Point is, the horrifying attrition of men and material in 21C ground operations has stunned honest military planners on both sides. The era of drone, un-maned munitions has arrived with a vengeance.
Beyond the absurd levels of disinformation, one of the challenges in assessing the trajectory of this conflict is that nothing like this has ever happened before. Thus, there’s no comparable scenario to which it can be compared. When the Western media gloats about a particular Russian loss, there’s really no proof the U.S. military would fare any better in the same situation.
Furthermore, we’re starting to see evidence emerge that we’d perform rather poorly since the U.S. military has been unable to deal with Houthi drones and missiles not fired directly against our own warships. As far as we know, these get intercepted but for millions of dollars apiece. It’s the small drones that cause the most havoc because they’re so hard to detect and intercept, in contrast to the big ones like Bayraktars which were wiped out fairly soon into the conflict.
In terms of the Black Sea Fleet, how much havoc could the Mexicans wreak on Naval Station San Diego if the Russians equipped them with the best missiles in their arsenal and unlimited drones while providing constant and detailed ISR on this facility? NATO can sit back and cook up plans for attack, while the Russians must react in real time. If the Ukrainians manage to land a strike, this doesn’t mean they’re winning. Just because the U.S. military hasn’t taken the same sort of losses as the Russians doesn’t mean it wouldn’t under the same conditions.
In terms of Russian planes getting shot down, this is what happens in a war. In Vietnam, we lost 3,744 planes, 5,607 helicopters, and 578 UAVs. A modern conflict on the scale of Ukraine wouldn’t unfold for the United States like the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. In the opening stages of the SMO, Russian aircraft were mostly lofting missiles and rockets at the Ukrainians because their air defense grid included large numbers of long-range S-300 systems. The export version of this same system (1 billion USD each) keeps Israeli F-35s from flying over Syria and bombing it at will.
The other strikes were done with cruise missiles from Russian airspace by heavy bombers, such as the TU-95M. As the counter offensive stockpiles were put in place last year, during some strikes against them so many missiles were launched that TU-95Ms, which can drop 8 KH-101s at a time, were flying all the way across Russia from Murmansk. In a conflict against a modern opponent, close air support missions where planes above the soldiers on the ground drop bombs on nearby enemies aren’t possible.
Ukraine had a massive air defense capability which was stockpiled for WW3 because, in the event of war with NATO, if things were going poorly, the eastern part of Ukraine would’ve been the critical Soviet defensive line. Now that most of this network has been destroyed or depleted, the Russians are dropping precision glide bombs. For instance, an Su-34 can drop 4 FAB 250s at once which can glide up to 70km. Larger glide bombs include the FAB 1500, which is around 3,400 pounds.
The situation in the air is now dramatically different than at the start of the conflict. Before it fell, Adeevka was having 200 metric tons worth of these things slamming into it daily, thousands perished just trying to retreat. This is a hopeless situation.
The Russian Air Force can now deliver explosives in far greater quantities than it could with rockets, which don’t probably work against hardened facilities, and missiles which can’t be produced in quantities to do this much destruction every day. The Soviets turned Ukraine into one of the most fortified places on the planet, and then NATO had since 2014 to turn into an even bigger fun house that was really tough to deal with unless the Russians were using giant bombs, which is now the case.
In terms of aircraft, the remnant of the Ukrainian fighters which have survived have done so because they’re to the east, so any Russian missile sent at them is detected by NATO at launch and then has hours to travel towards the target. Soviet aircraft were designed for WW3, meaning a situation where airfields might be knocked out. Thus, they can take off from roads and dirt runways because their air intakes have flaps which remain closed at takeoff, when the top of the plane intakes air.
An F-16 would become a giant vacuum cleaner under these conditions, and isn’t capable on its own of evading any AA system it would come up against on the way to attack Russian troops. It’s completely unsuitable for the Ukrainians, who’ve suffered the longest interceptions in history, often from Russian fighters over Belarus. If the Ukrainians were able to conceal them on runways far to the east, an F-16 would need to refuel in midair, a suicide mission they don’t have the capability to perform anyway. It’s total and complete nonsense that a handful of F-16s would accomplish anything except getting more young Ukrainian men killed.
The Western media constantly touts how the Ukrainians are going to receive various miracle weapons which will allow them to up their Russian turkey shoot and turn the tide while the truth is that none of these systems offer a superior capability to what the Russians field, don’t have the logistical and maintenance network they require to be effective, and don’t exist in numbers to make any significant impact on the conflict. The U.S. doesn’t have the units or military industrial complex to fight on this scale for this long.
In terms of the 50k number of Russian dead, this is the highest reasonable estimate I’ve seen. The actual number is probably somewhere between this and 20k, which would be the lowest reasonable estimate. In my last article, I mentioned that this was from the Russian Army, not the Chechens, PMCs, and local militias which have taken heavier casualties because they’re the units conducting urban infantry assaults.
None of these assaults are human wave attacks, no evidence has ever been provided that the Russians are conducting human wave attacks, and no plausible rationale has ever been offered as to why a human wave attack would even be effective, let alone why the side with overwhelming firepower and dominance of the skies would resort to this tactic.
Even Wagner Group was fighting in small fire teams with two convicts to one professional, which is tactically sound. Why on Earth the Russians would sacrifice tens of thousands in human wave attacks on Adeevka when they were hitting it with 200 tons of glide bombs per day defies all reason. It’s simply so absurd there isn’t even a good adjective for it.
The human wave attack nonsense is a way of conceding that the Russians are winning since there’s no way to obfuscate that anymore, but also that we’re still winning in a way, so that these journalists and experts don’t have to acknowledge that they’re incompetent and have been telling lies on a criminal level all along. So, the final narrative will probably be that the Russians won with human wave attacks.
They don’t have any way to salvage their nonsense, so they’re turning it up a notch. The human wave attack thing isn’t new. It’s just that instead of it being evidence the Russians were losing in a comical fashion, now it’s being given as the reason they’re winning. Jews will never reconcile themselves with the truth, there’s no shortage of unscrupulous Americans willing to do their bidding and lots of ignorant, stupid people to believe the lies. I’m not sure if this is as bad as getting hit by a glide bomb, but it really sucks.
It’s quite simple logic that the side which dominates the air and has overwhelming firepower would be taking far less casualties than the side on the receiving end willing to launch large assaults across open ground through minefields at the behest of a foreign power without its best interests in mind. The counter offensives last year were a suicidal proposition, just like trying to hold on to any of these meet grinders, or keeping the war going at all for that matter.
One reason this conflict has dragged on is that Russia isn’t willing to sacrifice lives taking on unnecessary danger. The Ukrainians are dug in behind massive minefields and can be supplied with enough FPV drones in perpetuity by NATO to make trouble for any Russian unit that tries to advance. These things are small and hard to block, so this will probably drag on until there’s a collapse or Zelensky is replaced with someone able to agree to Russia’s terms. I wouldn’t expect the war to conclude with huge offensives like we saw in Ukraine during WW2.
In the meantime, we’ll keep hearing about human wave attacks.
I’m proud to officially announce my candidacy for the office of Dogcatcher.
The Convinced are burrowed into their respective trenches armed to the gills with internet facts.
This is one of the filthy byproducts of a people who have sequestered themselves into the cultural septic silos of post-American technofascist globocapital.
There is no separating facts and the pursuit of reason and evidence from the clockwork of their personal identities.
Who they are, which is a Good, Smart person, is wholly defined by their stance within the various brands of the holding company called the Narrative.
These Russia is losing badly types have Mexican son-in-laws and government pensions to consider while they fill their garages with gear and bluster their fellow couldesac commanders in their blank slate American dreamscape.
The veil shall not be pierced. By the time any truth leaks out of the blood soaked wheat fields of old Russia, we will be headlong into the next chapter of some other concoction of hubris and self-destruction to which they will find themselves once again on the right side.
It is common in the dissident sphere to aggregate around some cathartic and revealing inevitability of collapse but I doubt we will be so lucky to be united with our long lost brothers in some sudden restoration of reality, however brutal that might be.
No, we have been in a grinding long slow decay for a long time already and only want to believe it is accelerating because like getting older makes time speed up we synchronize that speed to our own demise.
The Nation of Dixie had so much ruin in her bones it took the yanks generations to create a vassal empire of compliant waddlers and their whigger spawn. FUSA promises an even longer run.
The War will outlive us all, make good with God and separate from the males who will not own themselves because while it may not break, the machine does grind down slow enough on occasion to hop off into redoubts of reality and those lost bois of the dead empire cannot be let inside the wire.
The Slow Motion Operation will continue for as long as Putin wants it to continue He could have finished it early on by taking out Ukraine’s power grid and the bridges over the Dniepr. But then what? An occupied Ukraine would undoubtedly pose problems. My own sense is that things are a lot more tangled over there than we can conceive. And that the Russians are using the SMO as cover, while they prepare for the next one they see coming down the Interstate.
Or maybe he’s playing his assigned role in the proposed NWO….
We’ll know more in 100 years.
At this point I’d be more concerned about human wave attacks on us via the Red Dawn military aged men invasion force helped across our borders and into our country by traitors.
Are WE trained on drone defense? How will our AR 15’s fare against swarms of drones? Ther are drone defense weapons available. Do ANY of us have them?
Then there’s the food, water, supply, ammo, “ETC.,” issue when family and friends come over for help. You know … WHEN the poo hits, which should be real soon.
Thinking about issues far in the distance is a form of escapism. Same as caring about what grown men in tights do with a ball, ( and most of them black! )
Get ready. Pray. Build community. Supply up.
Don’t forget seeds.
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‘Andrei’ will get ya to ‘ground truth’ on how we’re about 20 years behind now on Air Defense and Hypersonics since we weren’t fighting ‘near peers’ for that same period…
…and wasted trillions in treasure and blood along the way.