A Faulty Analytical Framework

We’ve reached a stage in America where anyone capable of performing critical thinking in any official capacity better keep his mouth shut or his life is going to be destroyed. There’s a good reason why dissidents would be wise to post anything, comment sections included, under a nom de plume. Still, it seems like most of the ostensible experts can’t do Step 1 to reach perdition in Step 2.

Perhaps that’s some sort of subconscious defensive mechanism, but I really doubt it because it seems like most system functionaries go through a selection process for not speaking out through really no coercion at all. Moreover, they act like antibodies against system infection by disgruntled types such as myself. In the context of Ukraine, this seems particularly alarming.

There is a myriad of critical thinking points which should trigger anyone capable of keeping us out of World War 3 or leading units in a major conflict into rejecting the official narrative. For example, without any plausible justification, we were told in February of 2022 that the Russians would run out of munitions and their unprovoked invasion would fall apart in a matter of days.

An informed individual should be aware that the Russians have been stockpiled for World War 3 since the Soviet period. Their MIC (military industrial complex) is safely located far out of the range of anything except an ICBM, centralized for efficiency, and has lines mothballed for just such a conflict to be fought on a massive scale in Ukraine. There’s an enormous logistical infrastructure for this purpose, since Ukraine was the area that the Soviets counted on making their last stand before evacuating Moscow. Somehow, it’s difficult to grasp the price ≠ effectiveness or that the Russian military requests a specific system from state enterprises based on what it needs.

Meanwhile, our MIC is boutique in terms of production numbers and dispersed all over the place to bribe congressmen who also receive campaign contributions to demand the Pentagon purchase overpriced systems that might not be useful at all. NATO was set up to defend Central Europe at the Fulda Gap, North German Plain, and the Danube River Valley through Austria. It’s not possible to drive military assets like tanks across Europe to the Donbass. Padraig Martin offers an expert write up on the details of why the logistics of this conflict don’t work in Ukraine’s favor. I’m just bringing up basic things a student of history and current affairs ought to understand.

As imported equipment and munitions stockpiles reached their zenith ahead of Ukraine’s doomed counter offensive, Russia launched a series of the largest drone and missile strikes ever (their prior strikes had been the largest ever) involving hundreds of missiles launched from ground-based platforms, aircraft, and naval assets in both the Black Sea and Caspian. The drones were flying around in literal swarms to confuse AA operators and so many missiles were launched that TU-95Ms were flown all the way across Russia from Murmansk. These were guided from A-50 AWAC planes.

We couldn’t do to Mexico what they’ve been doing to Ukraine, we lack the equipment, munitions, and production levels for this sort of bombardment. Someone rising through the ranks should be able to do the math on this in a minute and conclude to himself that our project on Russia’s border is doomed to fail.

Furthermore, he should be asking himself if the Russians can repeatedly perform such pioneering military operations on a grand scale, are they really so stupid and ill-equipped they’re sending conscripts to die in human wave attacks? I never hear this sort of incredulity from anyone worthy of official respect.

They’re able to assess the conflict through the following analytical framework, which I think can be broken into 10 basic points:

  1. Russians are incompetent.
  2. Russians use junk.
  3. Russians are cowards.
  4. Russian motives are nefarious.
  5. Russia is falling apart like the 1990s.
  6. We’re the good guys.
  7. We’re the experts.
  8. Our stuff is the very best.
  9. Across the globe, America is loved and Russia despised.
  10. Putin, a despotic leader, is in a highly tenuous position.

You can pretty much take any mainstream coverage or statements from experts and military officials and find a few, if not all, of these points raised each time. It offers tremendous predictive value (or perhaps confirmation bias) for how things will be interpreted.

Often, this leads to absurd claims since they can’t veer from all of these points in order to explain what’s going on. I’ve heard academic experts try to assert that the lopsided kill ratio in Ukraine’s favor is due to factors like the Russians having great difficulty hitting moving targets (above Points 1 and 2). I can think of a few safe, long-distance methods: guided missiles launched from KA-52s hovering far out of sight at treetop level, Lancet loitering munitions, and Krasnopol laser guided artillery rounds. The Russian MOD releases dozens of clips per day.

This is how one-sided casualties are inflicted.

This how we also get immediate conclusions about how the Russians launched a rocket attack on their own POW camp packed with valuable Azov Battalion captives, blew up their own gas pipeline, were shelling a nuclear power plant they controlled and manned, and now blew up their own dam when they could’ve just opened the flood gates if that’s the effect they wanted to achieve. This is all completely counterproductive for the Russians, but back to Points 1 & 4, these actions make sense from the conventional analytical framework.

Of course! See Points 1 through 10.

I could spend time that I don’t have picking apart each of the 10 points in the framework above, but I’ve essentially done that through everything I’ve written on the subject since the SMO began if your interest is piqued. I also think it will explain how they’ll adjust the narrative after the Ukraine endeavor culminates in comprehensive disaster, which is the inevitable result if it doesn’t escalate. I’ve written about this before, as well.

However, things certainly could escalate. If they do, that might be soon because in terms of Ukrainian men and NATO material, there’s probably not enough to sustain a full-scale war much longer while the Russians continue to gear up. They’re producing multiples of what they did in 2022 and are undergoing a significant expansion of their active-duty forces in preparation for a broader conflict. After the counter offensive isn’t there for the narrative, things will become tougher politically in the West. It’s definitely underway, though. Hopefully, the slaughter ends soon with a BS narrative like this one:

6 comments

  1. In 2014 the US overthrew the legitimate, democratically elected Ukrainian government, and installed the current, US-puppet, Nazi junta. We then encouraged (ordered?) them to spend 8 years attacking ethnic Russian civilians in the Donbas. We repeatedly sabotaged the Minsk agreements and, more importantly, the cease fire that the junta and the Russians had negotiated in Turkey. That cease fire would have kept Donbas in Ukraine, and implemented the Minsk accords.

    When you add up all the things that Russia does routinely, and that Germany, Japan, the EU, and even the US do not and cannot do, you suddenly realize that the Russian economy must rank somewhere around 4th or 6th in the world, vying with Japan, and likely exceeding it.

    For many years after the demise of the Shuttle program, American astronauts rode to the ISS on Russian Soyuz space craft. We still use Russian rocket motors to put our spy satellites into orbit. The Russians have outclassed us in hypersonic weapons, electronic warfare, air defense and other critical technologies. They have as many engineers and scientists as we do with only 40% of our population: that’s a 2.5 per caput advantage. What do you think their engineers and scientists are doing? Twiddling thumbs?

    1. bob sykes

      I’m reading the book Das Reich again right now, with the new to me information of the secretive, US Airforce code named ‘carpetbaggers’ bomber group that supplied the French underground with weapons and plain clothed agents, money, food etc.,
      in the book Das Reich by Max Hastings, the author relates how the Germans who fought the Bolsheviks in Russia for four years were pretty depleted when they went to France to fight the US invasion there. Not only the US invasion but all the French underground who really tormented them in their illegal plainclothes war upon them. These were battled hardened men who had found out their homes were bombed out and their families killed. The last of the SS.
      The last European Army fighting for Europe, western civilization and European Sanctity.

      How you equate the shameless murder in Ukraine to ‘Nazis’ is a sin against Love and truth.
      It’s Heartless to me. Can you explain that to me please.
      The Germans were so depleted the military that fought the American invasion were a great part eastern and Western European Nationalists. The Capitalist angels won bob.

      God Rest All of Their Souls

  2. I suspect Putin and his military leaders have had several good belly laughs lately, particularly laughing at the U.S. Air Force ‘soldier’ saluting a sodomite ‘pride’ flag. Yep, the EXCEPTIONAL nation….and its homosexuality-glorifying military is quite laugh-inducing.

  3. Give credit where credit is due. Tulsi Gabbard denounced the Democratic Party as anti-White. She is right in that accord, but the greater reality is the entire system is anti-White! Both Russia and Ukraine had negative birthrates before this conflict. Regardless of who wins the religion is going to be female heavy for decades. It a shame when I have to go to Tik Toc to find out what is really happening because the powers that be lie to us constantly. That is the real reason they want to ban Tik Toc. Who spies on me more? The People’s Republic of China or “My” own government? Vladmir Putin did not start this war, Victoria Nuland and Obama’s State department did! The first thing Trump did when assuming the presidency was fire Victoria Nuland. Now that we are in the third term of Obama she is back in the driver’s seat.

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