Anyone familiar with the situation and actually considers a military confrontation between the U.S. and China to be a feasible proposition is an imbecile. For starters, this would entail a global supply chain collapse. That means your major security threat might not be the Chinese but your neighbors who decide to eat you. I plan on being more preemptive, but I haven’t informed mine about it.
The Chinese position is that if we have them on the ropes, they’d fight because there’s nothing left to lose at that point. In the meantime, they’ve been making earnest efforts to create an alternative system with the Russians that other countries can choose to join because it’s a better deal. A sort of peaceful global divorce, one could call it.
It’s not discussed by the American media, but most other countries would prefer a different system, especially as ours has rapidly become more insane. The fact that policy makers don’t understand this can be attributed to hubris, but perhaps even more so to a normalcy bias.
For as long as anyone has been alive, the American Empire was the only game in town. Everyone needed dollars, even the Soviet Union. Everybody on the planet was subjected to the economic and financial power of the United States. Decisions in Washington have been made accordingly.
The thinking is clearly that we still have this untrammeled power so it can be used for anything we want, no matter how much anyone else finds it objectionable. The conflict in Ukraine was supposed to be won by collapsing Russia’s economy overnight with sanctions. Everybody of note said that would happen, and then it didn’t. We’re in a new reality for which they’re unable to account.
The conflict was supposed to break Russia and then China, but it’s actually serving as the catalyst for their effort to break us. Our system is based on financial chicanery and military threats, while theirs is based on resources and productivity. They’re currently countering our threats as well.
So, what’s quickly coming together is a new system, which doesn’t involve a new global reserve currency to replace the dollar (look up the Triffin Dilemma to see why they wouldn’t want one). Instead, trade can be done outside of the dollar in a variety of currencies. I’m not sure why this is hard to conceptualize for people in the Beltway.
Since Brazil is producing agricultural commodities and China is producing manufactured goods, they can use the yuan to exchange them and skip the step of changing money into dollars. It costs money to change money. Likewise, Russia can sell oil to India in exchange for rupees because it can use them to buy stuff.
If the currencies involved remain stable, it can work fine. Remember when Biden told us that the “ruble was rubble“? How could that have been done if it’s backed by massive energy exports? The scheme failed right away.
By the nature of what I do, I interact with people who run large international businesses. I was recently talking to such an American about this shift. He was incredulous that anyone would want the yuan outside of China and that Russia had acquired so much of it because of desperation.
Every prestigious publication has been harping about how Russia is getting crushed for the past year, so that’s how many people in high places interpret what’s going on. You’d sound like a crackpot contending otherwise in respectable company.
Back to the normalcy bias factor, this is an older guy who’s been making millions of dollars playing the only game that’s existed for his entire life, even in Beijing. I think that makes it hard to conceptualize a new game despite his business acumen.
It’s hard to understate how the world is changing. For instance, what’s going to happen in capital markets? If you’re making money in these other currencies, why not invest in them as well? The confiscation of Russian assets, both public and private, has been absolutely outrageous. It doesn’t take a crystal ball to see that lots of Chinese assets would be next if the confrontation moves forward.
Our system is not a “rules-based international order” that works for democracy, freedom, and human rights. It’s actually run more like a violent criminal enterprise that steals money by the hundreds of billions, engages in industrial terrorism (everyone knows we blew up Nord Stream 2), and promotes perversions that most of the planet finds sickening.
There’re also the endless wars everyone is getting really fed up with, enabling China to set up a Middle East peace plan that actually brings peace to the region and accelerates the de-dollarization. It’s not a surprise that works better than trying to topple every country that was unfriendly to Israel.
If smaller countries can be made safe from the U.S., they’ll take the new deal. The guy in Tunisia would’ve been an excellent candidate for a color revolution but clearly he’s received security assurances from certain parties. Last year, it would’ve still been extremely dangerous for any leader of a small country to tell the IMF to fuck off. We’re going to see more of this across the Global South.
We’re even seeing this understanding of an alternative order manifest in Israel, where the bloodthirsty Netanyahu Jews don’t want to accept that they can’t take the whole region over. They’re increasing their share of the population because the globohomo Jews aren’t reproducing.
It’s not hard for globohomo Jews to see that a new framework could offer Israel security and are fine with doing their gay pride parades within defined borders. They don’t want the Netanyahu Jews establishing a lock on power because they’ll never stop pushing until they get the place destroyed.
What this means for us, here in America, remains to be seen. I’ve been very hesitant about holding on to a lot of dollars since they started printing all the COVID money, but the U.S. also has a large portion of the global population locked down, so the strength of the dollar in international trade will probably persist for years to come.
We also seem to be buying ourselves more time by cutting off Europe’s affordable energy supply, so production has to move here where it’s cheaper. They’re quite unhappy about what’s being done but none of their governments represent them. Europe is a horse we’re going to beat until it keels over and dies.
I don’t think there are any good precedents for what we’ll experience. As Russia collapsed in the 1990s, millions died deaths of despair largely as the result of a looting operation. What they had going for them was resource autarky, a manufacturing base that was never exported, social capital, and a global economy that didn’t collapse along with it. So, they were able to pull out of the crisis once the proper leadership was in place.
The United States doesn’t have any of that going for it. We could have a real nightmare on our hands if we can’t import all of what we rely on for survival with dollars. I don’t think anyone who reads this publication requires a litany of our social and racial problems that could catch fire. We’d be much better off if this is a process that gets managed over the course of the next decade or so.
The bottom line is that our prosperity, if that’s what you want to call what’s currently going on in America, isn’t based on producing physical stuff. This can’t be sustained in the future. Whatever hardships lie ahead will be better than what this system will do to us if it doesn’t fall apart, so there’s certainly a bright side.
I’m proud to officially announce my candidacy for the office of Dogcatcher.
Subtracting out services and financial transactions, the Russian real economy of things like food, ores, manufactures, etc., is 68% the size of the US real economy. Overall, on a PPP basis, the Russian economy is at least 40% of ours, and it may be half. Russia has the third largest economy in the world.
BRICS now accounts for about 32% of the world economy, which makes it larger than the G7 at 31%. And BRICS membership is growing, with both Saudi Arabia and Argentina in line.
Not to mention: Russia has roughly 50% of the population of the USA. So on a per capita basis, their economy is actually 136% the size of ours
Relax. Let China have Taiwan because we’ll need them to look the other way when we take all the islands in the gulf to complete CSA 2. $ … buy rolls of American Eagle silver dollars and some gold, stock up on food water supplies and ammo and wait for the collapse. When silver hits $500. + an ounce sell half and buy the best cryptos and the best dividend producing stocks for pennies.
Sell all stocks and currencies now and buy silver.
Silver, gold and ordinance will be currency.
To quote Musonius Rufus on a 2021 episode of Rebel Yell: “It’s going to be a shout of jubilation around the world when Washington D.C. falls.”
Check this bank out –
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8x0DXNE-eo
They’re talking about UPMA.org
Look into it …