Alexander Dugin is currently the main ideologue of Russia. A follower of the idea of Pan-Slavism whose thick, 600-page book, The Principles of Geopolitics is a textbook at the military Voroshilov General Staff Academy in Moscow (think West Point for Russian generals). Each Russian general must attend this prestigious two-year military college. In this textbook, Dugin presented his detailed plans for the expansion of Russia to allow the country to regain superpower status.
The book was written nearly 20 years ago and the Russian authorities have already implemented many elements of the plans contained in it. American and European analysts did not understand the situation in the region and did not foresee that what Dugin had written in his worrisome book would be applied. Knowledge of what is contained in the book allows for a very accurate prediction of what is happening in the world today and what we can expect in 2018. Almost 20 years after the publication and with the situation now at hand, it is worth looking closely to see how many of these predictions were true and how many goals Russia has achieved in that time.
1. “In the U.S., induce racial and social conflict by means of Afro-American racists and leftist movements.”
Racial riots in America inflamed by movements such as Black Lives Matter efficiently divided the country and caused casualties on every side. Renewal of the old movements, such as Black Panthers, destabilized America and divided its people as never before. The recent presidential election, won by Republicans, was dominated by a topics completely different than the previous one. War on Terror™, healthcare, education, unemployment – these topics were almost absent from speeches of both Clinton and Trump. Instead, candidates were talking mainly about equality, feminism, immigration and other minority matters. These are somewhat important matters, but not as important as the economy or other topics concerning the country as a whole. Discussion was diverted to less important topics and as we can see today, with quite successful Russian influence.
2. “Ukraine is not a country, and will be annexed.”
Dugin is a great enemy of Ukraine and he says that “It’s not an actual state, therefore there is no Ukrainian cultural heritage and no such thing as Ukrainian ethnic group.” From this point of view, Ukraine is a Russian-Polish state that must be dismantled and its land distributed to those countries. In 2014, Dugin advised Putin’s invasion and occupation of Ukraine to incorporate it into Russia. In 2015, the actual invasion of Crimea, Donetsk and Lugansk by Russia commenced and it ended in complete military success – Ukrainian army was shattered within 4 weeks.
3. “England must be cut off from Europe.”
Brexit, also supported by Putin, became a fact in 2016. Englishmen are now shocked and do not know how it happened. Young people, vulnerable to propaganda, voted for leaving the European Union and are still being manipulated. Surprise even amongst UK politicians was so big, that to this day, negotiations are still muddied because no one knows where to begin. Propaganda, especially on the internet, has proven to be very effective and led to the ultimate achievement of this goal. Dugin wanted to remove Britain from Europe because he believes the UK is a constant ally of the Americans and belongs to “Atlantic culture”. By weakening British influence in the European Union, Russian influence in Europe will be strengthened.
4. “Turkey will become an enemy of Russia, which is why it needs to be internally weakened by ethnic conflict, by supporting the Kurds and other groups.”
An incident in 2015 which Turkey shot down Russian fighter jet, has become a hotbed of very serious conflict between the two countries and led to riots in Moscow and Ankara. Dugin believes that Turkey is a natural rival of Russia and the only way to deal with it is to support the Kurds. To this day, the Kurdish problem is not solved while Kurd militants are supported from many sides – including Russians.
Objectives Incomplete (For Now)?
Russia still uses the tools of propaganda and military strength to make a projection of influence in neighboring countries, but it has not sufficient power to achieve all of the objectives. The following plans contained in the Principles of Geopolitics were also proposed to strategists from Moscow. Not completed yet, but actively pursued by Russia to be brought into reality.
1. “Dismantle China.”
20 years ago, Dugin predicted that China will be the biggest threat to Russians, so Russia needs to side with India, the two Koreas and later attach even Vietnam and Indonesia to this bloc. Each of these countries will benefit from dismantling China. In order to achieve this goal, Russia can use political influence and orchestrate separatist tendencies in China, such as in Tibet and Xinyang provinces.
2. “Poland must have a special status in the Eurasian Union.”
Dugin is not an enemy of the Polish state. He is even ardent supporter of Pan-Slavism, an ideology created in the nineteenth-century according to which, Slavic countries should create cultural community and stick together. Poland should be a country between East and West, but should adhere to the traditional conservative values of Russia.
3. “Russia-Islamic Axis.”
Russia should win over the Islamic states, because the traditional values of Russia have much in common with Islam. Islamic States could also help in the fight against the secular power of Turkey. Particularly valuable for this would be Iran, in which there is also a lot of anti-American sentiment. Putin achieved this partially by supporting Assad and even by participating in military operations in Syria. This participation actually led to current ceasefire in Syria and strengthening Russia as a political power in a Middle-East.
Today, Alexander Dugin has a ban on entry to the US, because after occupation of Crimea he was put on the blacklist of several dozen Russian high-ranking officials. And how should we assess him? Undoubtedly, he is a very intelligent man – his works, some of which were published also in English (currently excluding Principles of Geopolitics) are a thorough analysis of today’s geopolitics with references to philosophers and ancient and modern thinkers such as Fukuyama, Heidegger and Mahan.
However, Dugin got himself in some trouble even in Russia, after an interview for Russian paper in which he told what should be done with the Ukrainians: “Kill, kill, kill. As a professor, I have no doubt.” 10,000 students from the prestigious Lomonosov University in Moscow signed a petition to remove him from his position of Dean of the Faculty of Sociology, because even in Russia, you can’t say such words openly. But that has not changed much in his career.
Alexander Dugin publishes more books and is still the éminence grise in the Kremlin, the advising the next steps to Putin.
You need to be paying attention.