The first shall be from: Jones, Robert P. (2016-07-12). The End of White Christian America. Simon & Schuster. Kindle Edition. The author is our enemy. The main premise of the book is to count invaders as Americans without ever talking about the invasion. Even with knowledge of the Invasion, there are still things to learn from the data that the author gloats over.
“Earlier and steeper declines among white mainline Protestants, followed by later significant declines among white evangelical Protestants. Using the General Social Survey to measure retention rates for each group, Putnam and Campbell found that mainline Protestant retention rates began to fall among people who came of age between 1920 and 1960, stabilizing at about 60– 65 percent. In other words, as they put it, “for the last half century roughly one-third of the people raised in one of the mainline Protestant denominations has left the faith, mostly to become evangelical or none.”
White evangelical Protestants, by contrast, retained approximately three quarters of their children for most of the twentieth century. However, among those who came of age in the 2000s, the retention rate plunged to 62 percent, a number comparable to that of their mainline cousins.”
Support for Same-Sex Marriage (2003– 2014)
To sociologists, evangelicals are the fundamentalists, Evangelical Churches, Pentecostals, Southern Baptists, and other conservative denominations who vote conservatively on binary issues like gay marriage.
To theologians, evangelicals are any of various Christian churches that believes in the sole authority of the literal Bible, a salvation only through regeneration, or rebirth, and a spiritually transformed personal life.
All Protestants were once called “evangelicals” at the beginning of the 20th century. “Evangelical” is still the standard name for Protestants in Germany. After the rise of Fundamentalism, the Protestants that switched from social issues like feeding the poor to private morality like saving souls were named “evangelicals” by sociologists. This switch is called the “Great Reversal” and it took place between 1910 and 1930.
As a result, groups as disparate as black Baptists and Dutch Reformed Churches, Mennonites and Pentecostals, Catholic charismatics and Southern Baptists can all come under the evangelical umbrella. The Southern Baptist Convention, Lutheran Church – Missouri Synod, the Christian and Missionary Alliance (C&MA), the Churches of Christ, the Presbyterian Church in America (PCA), the North American Lutheran Church (NALC), and the Anglican Church in North America (ACNA) are often considered too conservative for to be mainline Protestants and are thus grouped as evangelical.
Once an overwhelmingly Protestant nation, the U.S. no longer has a Protestant majority. In 2007, when the Pew Research Center conducted its first Religious Landscape Study, more than half of adults (51.3%) identified as Protestants. Today, by comparison, 46.5% of adults describe themselves as Protestants. Hispanic Protestants made 4% by 2014. Since about a quarter of Hispanics convert to Catholicism we can guess how many are replacing White Catholics today.
Mainline Protestant numbers dropped from 24% in 1988 to 14% in 2012. For the last half century, about a third of people raised in Mainline denominations have left to become Evangelical or None. Mainliners constitute 20% of seniors but 10% of Americans below 30.
In contrast with mainline Protestantism, there has been less change in recent years in the proportion of the population that belongs to churches in the evangelical or historically black Protestant traditions. Evangelicals now make up a clear majority (55%) of all U.S. Protestants. In 2007, 51% of U.S. Protestants identified with evangelical churches.
Mainliners may try to comfort themselves by claiming that every denomination is in decline, but it’s simply not true. While conservative churches aren’t growing as they once were, mainline churches are on a path toward extinction. The mainline churches are finding that as they move further away from Biblical Christianity, the closer they get to their inevitable demise.
Meanwhile, the forms of Christianity, that are the most offensive to 20th century society, were growing. In 1900, two-thirds of protestants were of liberal denominations. By 1975, conservatives evangelicals were the majority because they had had a one child advantage over liberal Protestants in those 75 years (Eric P. Kaufmann). White Evangelicals retained three-quarters of their children for most of the 20th century. However, that rate fell to 62% for their Millennial children.
Starting in 2008, White Evangelicals began to fall too. They comprised 22% in 1988 and were 21% in 2008, but they have fallen to 18%. Evangelicals are 26% of seniors but only 10% of Americans below 30–a two-thirds loss. The rise of the “Nones” is definitely part of that, but the Mestizo invasion is also why they are in decline in the South. PRRI’s pre-election American Values Survey found that while two-thirds (65 percent) of white evangelical Protestants report that they were absolutely certain to vote in the November elections, less than half (45 percent) of the religiously unaffiliated report this kind of certainty.
In 2008, US Protestants were 51.3% of the US, while Roman Catholicism by itself, at 23.9%, was the largest individual denomination. A 2008 Pew study categorizes white evangelicals, 26.3% of the population, as the country’s largest religious cohort; another study in 2004 estimates evangelicals of all races at 30–35%. The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints (Mormons) is the fourth largest church in the United States, and the largest church originating in the U.S.
Roman Catholicism is the largest denomination of Christianity in the US–comprising about 23% of the citizenry. My guess is almost a third of them are Latino and are growing by immigration, though about 23% of Hispanics do become Protestants. Protestants account for under half of the US citizenry. Baptists are a third of US Protestants and Southern Baptists are their largest single denomination. White Evangelical Protestants are over 26% of the US. Therefore, they are the largest single US religious cohort, though they have split off from several different denominations. Mormons are the fourth largest church in the United States.
There is no emphasis upon grace or justification by faith because the argument was within Protestantism and not between it and other forms of Christianity.
Religious Fundamentalism was named after Christian Fundamentalism. That was named after the “Five Fundamentals” popularized in free booklets published by the Stewart Brothers right before WWI that were sent to all ministers in the US. Sociologists have noticed several things about fundies:
- Fundamentalists are a reaction to Modernism and younger than it.
- Fundamentalists are better at the use of mass media than Modernists.
- Fundamentalist movements are patriarchal but have more women than liberal denominations.
- Fundamentalists concentrate on private morality, not social justice.
Paradox of Strong Religion
Strict demands “strengthen” a church in three ways:
- They raise overall levels of commitment.
- They increase average rates of participation.
- They enhance the net benefits of membership.
These strengths arise because strictness mitigates free-rider problems that otherwise lead to low levels of member commitment and participation.
To make a long story short, evangelicals were a revivalist form of Christianity among the Working Class that revolted against the more-educated mainline denominations of Protestantism. They first concentrated on helping the poor, but found out that the poor just wanted their free stuff and not their message. The evangelicals then became moralists that concentrate upon personal holiness and declared war on Marx, Darwin, and Intellectualism. They became a majority of Protestants by 1975 by having one more child on average than the mainliners. But in the 21st century, evangelicals can’t get their kids to go to church.
“A comparison of the current affiliation patterns of the oldest and youngest Americans, for example, reveals that white evangelicals have actually lost more ground than white mainline Protestants across current generations (Figure 2.6). White evangelical Protestants constitute 27 percent of seniors (age 65 and older), but only 10 percent of Americans under 30 years of age— a loss of nearly two thirds from the oldest to the youngest generation of adults. By contrast, white mainline Protestants— who saw a reduction in their numbers two decades before evangelical numbers began to dip— account for fewer (20 percent) seniors but 10 percent of younger Americans. This still represents a 50 percent decline in market share across generations, but it is less steep than the evangelical decline.
As a result of both lower birth rates among whites and the loss of younger members to disaffiliation, the median age among white Protestants overall has risen by seven years since 1972. In 1972, white Protestants’ median age was 46 years old, only slightly higher than the median age for the American population (44 years old). 18 Today, white Protestants’ median age is 53, while Americans as a whole have a median age of 46.19 Notably, by 2014, there was no difference between the median ages of white evangelical and mainline Protestants; white evangelical Protestants’ median age was 53, compared to white mainline Protestants’ median age of 52.
These indications of white evangelical decline at the national level are corroborated by internal membership reports during the same period from the Southern Baptist Convention (SBC), the largest evangelical Protestant denomination in the country. The 2015 report showed that SBC membership fell for the eighth year in a row. 21 The denomination’s official Baptist Press reported that the 200,000-member plunge in 2014 represented the largest single drop in membership since 1881…
Today the number of white Catholics is also diminishing. In 1990, white Catholics comprised a solid 22 percent of the American population; by 2014, that number had fallen by nearly half, to 13 percent of Americans. 44 Today, former Catholics— most of them white and relatively young— make up 15 percent of the total adult population. 45 The only reason that the Catholic population overall has maintained its stable one quarter of the population is that Hispanic Catholics— who now comprise 8 percent of the population— are replacing disaffiliating and dying white Catholics.”
Since the retention rate is falling for Evangelicals, they will probably go mega-church to feed upon Nones. That will be a grave error. Retention and birthrates was how they became powerful. Mega-churches use a business model to get people to walk through the door. This stunts internal growth by birthrate because of the free-rider problem. The mega-church is a church of free-riders.
Combining the Autor-Wasserman, Kaufmann, Nisbet, Putnam, and Eberstadt Hypotheses makes for a very interesting story.
- Nisbet Hypothesis: the Ruling Class have torn open our community borders to make us compete against each other instead of them.
- Putnam: diversity kills community.
- Autor-Wasserman: declining wages among men is effectively sterilizing them.
- Eberstadt: having babies causes religious revivals. Birth-dearths cause irreligion.
- Kaufmann: fundies have more babies. Strong religion drives out free-riders.
- Strong White religious communities that expel free riders and use mutual aid to escape the cartels will flourish.